Thursday , 25 July 2024

World Economy & Market Forecast: More Sunshine & Less Stormy Weather Ahead (+2K Views)

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It seems clear that there are a number of investors who have gained confidence in the global economy and are seeking to capture the growth opportunities taking place around the world. With the European crisis comfortably in the rear view mirror and global central banks taking the position that they will continue their easing policies, investors have taken their foot off the brake and have begun to accelerate….We see more sunshine and less stormy weather ahead [and explain why that is the case in this article]. Words: 695; Charts: 3

So says Frank Holmes ( in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Resource Investors: Why You Can Expect Sunnier Days Ahead. 

This article is presented compliments of (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Holmes goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

During the current commodity supercycle, there have been occasions – too many to count – when investor psyche has been damaged by reports about slowing U.S. growth, a hard landing in China or a debt crisis in Europe. Just behind the gloom, however, significant and positive trends are taking hold, causing the storms to start dissipating.

Government policies are precursors to change, which is why we follow the monetary and fiscal actions closely as they can have a significant impact on asset prices….

  • [In the past] 16 months Brazil… and many developing countries such as the Philippines, China and Colombia, as well as developed nations of Japan, the European Central Bank, the U.S. and the U.K. have joined forces in a world-wide synchronized stimulation of the economy.
  • Last summer, Mario Draghi indicated that the ECB would do  “whatever it takes” to save the euro.
  • In the fall, the Federal Reserve agreed  to buy $85 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgages, amounting to $1  trillion a year.
  • Just recently Japan announced that, in addition  to pumping $1.1 trillion into the markets through 2013, the central bank will  keep an open-ended approach to buying assets through 2014.

China’s PMI at a 2-year High

Historically, central banks’ policy actions occur after there has been some economic deterioration. Several months later, the stimulative  measures work their way through the global economy. This has been the case with China, which has been showing  remarkable improvement in its export-oriented HSBC Purchasing Managers Index.  The PMI is a measure of health of companies in China, as it includes output, new  orders, employment and prices across numerous sectors and this month the Flash PMI came in at 51.9, beating market  consensus, which was at 51.7. The PMI stands at a two-year high, as you can see  in the chart below.


…PMIs are leading indicators for global resources stocks, which have lagged over the past year. In 2012, the Morgan Stanley Commodity Related Index only increased 1.4%. This year, however, the index is off to an incredible start, rising more than 8% in only four weeks.

Dow Jones Transportation Average at Record High

Stocks across a number of cyclical areas of the market have benefited from this global improvement, including industrial companies such as trucking, rail and airlines. Take a look below at a classic cyclical measure of the market, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, or Dow Jones Transports. The index, an average of 20 transportation companies in the U.S., reached an all-time high this week.

Dow jones Transportation average record new high

Best Month for Energy Stocks Lie Ahead

In addition to the synchronized stimulus driving resources,  we are entering the time of year that has historically been good for energy  equities. Looking at two decades of seasonal patterns of companies in the  S&P 500 Energy Index, the next six months have historically been the best  of the year. While energy stocks typically decline in January, they have seen  positive results in February, March, April and May. July has historically been  the best month for energy stocks, climbing more than 3% on a median  return basis.

Best month lie ahead


We see more sunshine and less stormy weather ahead. A caveat to these sunnier days is the U.S. debt ceiling issue. In managing expectations going forward, we likely will see volatility not unlike the ups and downs of the last four years. However, every dip has historically been a buying opportunity. With many investors now considering equities today, future dips are likely to be opportunities to buy as well.

Take advantage of these momentous and seasonal shifts and make sure you have an appropriate allocation to equities poised to benefit, such as global natural resources stocks….

Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.


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