We’ve been surprised at the recent action in the precious metals complex. During the recent correction the shares were showing quite a bit more strength than the metals. Then the shares took a dive below support yet the metals maintained their recent lows! How do we interpret this wild volatility in the relationship between the shares and the metals? Quite often we look at daily and weekly charts. Now is the time to take a look at the monthly charts which can help us get a better read on the larger trends at hand. Words: 636
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), may have edited the article below to some degree for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page for details. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Roy-Byrne goes on to say, in part:
The Monthly Gold Chart
The monthly chart of Gold shows the yellow metal in a very healthy consolidation between $1550 and $1800. Gold’s current retreat from $1800 has lasted two months. Back in 2009, Gold broke out to a new all-time high in the seventh month of its consolidation. Presently, Gold’s bollinger band width is at a multi-year low and its three-month volume average is at a two year low. Also, the RSI has bottomed and made a higher low. Even if Gold touched $1600, it would remain in healthy position for a breakout in 2013. [Read: Update: Gold & Silver to Drop to $1,675 & $30.50 by End of 2012 Before Going to $3,950 & $117 by End of 2013!]
The Monthly Silver Chart
Gold’s companion Silver is currently trading in a tighter consolidation with $35 as resistance and $27 as support. Note that Silver has tested and held above $27 six times in the last fifteen months. Silver also held above the rising 40-month moving average which supported the market in 2009 and 2010. The RSI has also made a higher low and volume has trended down during the past seven months. [Read: Why You Should Now Invest in Silver vs. Gold]
The Gold Stocks Chart
Meanwhile, the gold stocks (HUI) look weaker than the metals. Momentum hasn’t confirmed its bottom as the market is in a clear range from 400 (support) and 525 (resistance). Note the current 11% decline in the HUI for the month while Gold and Silver are still in positive territory. Nevertheless, if and when the HUI prints a monthly close above 525, this chart would like quite bullish and general sentiment would certainly pick up.
The evidence argues that the bottoms remain well intact and the metals are consolidating before the next breakout which entails Gold breaking $1800 and Silver $35. However, these breakouts are by no means imminent. Since we are dealing with monthly charts that means potentially three or four more months of consolidation. Furthermore, sentiment data such as the COT structure and public opinion polls need some improvement before the market could sustain a breakout. Thus, more consolidation could be the order of the day for the metals.
Continued consolidation in the metals also helps explain recent weakness in the HUI, which is simply testing the lower half of its own consolidation. The shares see the weakness in the overall market and perhaps sense that an immediate breakout in the metals is unlikely. Furthermore, while central banks have put themselves in position to act, they haven’t actually done anything yet. When the market senses their action it will likely mark a final low within this consolidation.
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The good news is the metals remain in fine shape and so to do most of the mining equities we follow. [Read: Which Is the Best Buy Now – Gold or Gold Stocks?] If we are indeed correct that the metals and shares will remain range bound then your task is simple. Prepare yourself for further consolidation by having your buy list ready and then be ready to act when the time comes.
A wise friend once told me that in a bull market the goal is to accumulate positions at the lowest prices possible. With mining equities trading well off their highs, now is the time to do your research and find the companies that will lead the next leg higher and outperform the gold stock sector. [Read: Here Are 50+ Different Ways to Invest in Gold]
Editor’s Note: The above post may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
Our subscription service provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going short term (in the next week or two), intermediate term (within the next 3-6 months) and long term (the ultimate top) in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and our proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Below are some of our latest comments and rationale for expected price movements in gold without illustative charts which are only available to subscribers. Words: 1000
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My previous article on gold & silver went viral with almost 30,000 reads on munKNEE.com alone and continues to be read by hundreds of goldbugs daily. Below is an updated chart and analysis suggesting that gold & silver have further to drop before they go parabolic. Take a look and share it with friends.
Gold & silver have pulled back over the past two weeks after both faced strong resistance from the upper horizontal line of their respective trading ranges [and continue to flucuate within their] 12-month Trading Ranges of $1,540 – $1,800 and $26.50 – $36 respectively. HUI and XAU levels have pulled back and are testing the lower boundary of their rising wedges [but look likely to move upwards within their respective wedges (530 – 570 for the HUI and 200 – 215 for the XAU) before moving higher]. Check out my technical analysis below for details.