With the current gold price at $1,958/ozt., the $2,000 number…seems to be the price most gold traders and investors are focusing on at this time…[but does that] price hold any special significance other than what most in the gold community are thinking about? [Well,]… it does. [Let me explain.]
Gold at $600
Gold at $2,000/ozt. today is the same as it was in 1980 at $600/ozt. In other words, on an inflation-adjusted basis, gold is no more valuable today than it was forty-two years ago…This is consistent with gold’s role as a store of value.#$$4$
Gold at $3K and $10K
We have heard much lately from those who claim that gold could easily rise to $3,000/ozt. or more; maybe even $10,000/ozt. Some say it could happen quickly, too…but likely not quickly or easily, because:
- gold at $2,000/ozt. already represents fully a 99% decline in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar
- and, in order for gold to rise beyond $2,000/ozt., and stay above that number or increase to a higher level, there would need to be further significant declines in U.S. dollar purchasing power that are apparent and permanent.
- The price of gold reflects the effects of inflation that have already been absorbed into the economy; not those which haven’t occurred yet.
What Can We Expect Next From Gold?
Not much.
- The price could run up a bit again to as high as $2,100/ozt., but we probably have seen the highs for this move up and,
- if there is an extended period of U.S. dollar strength or continued improvement in the economy, then the gold price could decline sharply – and it could stay down for several years, too.