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“The U.S., with $15 trillion in debt, and roughly $1.5 trillion in tax revenues, is an
enormous disaster waiting to happen. At 10% interest rates the U.S. would use 100% of its tax revenues to finance the debt….This is why money printing is guaranteed…and this time, like it has before, it will lead to a financial crash [which] will be of a worldwide magnitude.”
So says Egon von Greyerz in edited excerpts from an interview* with Eric King of King World News which are presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds). This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
von Greyerz concludes his comments in the following edited excerpts:
“Gold’s rise has reflected some of the money printing up to now…and has risen with only slightly more than 1% of the world’s assets in gold….With inflation headed higher, institutions… will have to increase their allocation to gold….[yet] there simply isn’t the gold available at today’s prices to facilitate even a small move by institutional money into the sector.”
The interview can be read in its entirety here.
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Editor’s Note: The above may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
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I believe that in the autumn of 2012 we are going to see…a series of negative events – failing economies, higher unemployment, more QE, and extraordinary levels of social unrest. When QE is announced, I see a temporary rally in stocks but at some point stocks will collapse. I’m not talking about mining stocks, but common stocks outside of the mining sector.
2. von Greyerz: Gold Going to $3,500-$5,000 in 12-18 Months – and $10,000 Within 3 Years!
There will be a catalyst coming soon, probably some concerted action of money printing between the Fed, IMF and the ECB. That will happen as a result of the economies, worldwide, collapsing….The catalyst could come from anywhere but the money printing will be part of the next move in gold, that’s for certain….[and it] will lead to collapsing currencies, and investors buying gold at any price…I see gold reaching $3,500 to $5,000 in the next 12 to 18 months. Within 3 years, I see the gold price reaching at least $10,000.
3. Aden Forecast: Bubble Phase in Gold to Begin in 2013 and Possibly Reach…
Gold has been moving within a mega upchannel since 1970 and still has a ways to go before reaching the top side of this mega uptrend. How high is anyone’s guess but were gold’s price rise to match the 2300% rise realized in the 1970s (and our research suggests we could see the start of the bubble phase by next year) we’d see a $6000 gold price, which would blow the gold price well above the mega upchannel. [Let us explain our conclusions with the use of 2 charts.] Words: 495
4. BofA: NO Further Fed Easings Until These 3 Key Triggers Are Met
In a note to clients, BofA rates strategists Priya Misra and Shyam Rajan say the Fed is “waiting for the triple threat” – three key triggers that must be met before the Fed does any additional easing. They are…
5. S&P 500′s Performance Will Determine If, and When, We Have QE3 – Here’s Why
If you are angry about LIBOR – angry that 18 banks can set one of the world’s most important interest rates in such a poorly supervised, ill-understood manner – you should be even angrier that just 12 people sitting in a room can set the world’s single most important interest rate to suit the needs of the stock market, all under the pretence of controlling inflation? Let me explain. Words: 810
6. Further QE Would Amount to _issing in the Wind! Here’s Why
“… those who are waiting for the Fed cavalry to ride over the hill and rescue the economy are doomed to disappointment….The banks are awash in loanable funds, businesses are cash-rich and opportunity-poor, and interest rates are already so low that lower still will not attract borrowing….More liquidity is unlikely to impart more impetus to the sluggish economy…. Congress and the President should not count on the Fed to bail them out of their mistakes…. Central banks are unable to help in the face of persistently flawed economic policies.”
7. What Will the Outcome of All the QE Mean for the U.S. (and the World)?
At the risk of looking/sounding like some crazed religious fanatic usually seen carrying a sign or proclaiming: “Repent, the end is near,” I shall avoid the word “repent”. To me, the rest of that proclamation appears accurate and reasonable, at least with regard to our economic condition. [Let me explain:] Words: 1896
8. Richard Duncan: IF Credit Bubble Pops Civilization Won’t Survive the Depression that Follows
Our civilization would not be able to handle such a transition from an expansionary credit based economy where goods and services were readily available into a paradigm of credit contraction, supply shortages and destitution and this is what is coming. There is no way to prevent it – only to defer it until a later date – and that day will soon be upon us. Words: 590
Evidence shows that the U.S. money supply trend is in the early stages of hyperbolic growth coupled with a similar move in the price of gold. All sign point to a further escalation of money-printing in 2012…followed by unexpected and accelerating price inflation, followed by a rise in nominal interest rates that will bring a sovereign debt crisis for the U. S. dollar with it as the cost of borrowing for the government escalates…[Let me show you the evidence.] Words: 660
10. Fitzpatrick: Charts Suggest $2,400 Gold & $50 Silver By Late 2012/Early 2013
“[The current]…base building process for gold…has been similar to the 2006/2007 base before it went higher (see chart)….If it breaks out through… $1,688, and in particular, eventually, through $1,791…the short-term target for gold would then be in the $2,050 to $2,060 range. After a short-term pause we would then expect a continuation up to the $2,400 area by the end of the year or beginning of next year.” (See long-term Gold chart)
11. The “80-20 Rule” Suggests Gold Will Reach $8,300/ozt in Spring of 2015!
The “Pareto principle” – it’s often referred to as the “80-20 rule” – states that 80% of the effects of something come from just 20% of the causes (that is that 80% of people control 20% of the wealth, that 80% of sales come from 20% of your customers, etc.) and a new report by Erste Group, the Austrian investment bank, says this principle can be applied to bull markets as well, including the current bull market in gold, and following this line of thinking, you get an $8,300 price target for gold by the spring of 2015. Words: 285
12. Update: 51 Analysts Now Maintain that Gold is Going to $5,500 – $6,500/ozt. in 2015!
Lately analyst after analyst (161 at last count) has been climbing on board the golden wagon with prognostications as to what the parabolic peak price for gold will eventually be. That being said, however, only 51 have been bold enough to include the year in which they think their peak price estimate will occur and they are listed below. Take a look at who is projecting what, by when and why. Words: 644
According to a recent Elliott Wave theory analysis gold is about to go parabolic reaching $3,495 in June 2013, $6,233 in April 2014, $10,899 in Sept. 2014, $18,712 in December 2014 and culminating in a parabolic peak price of $31,672 on January 16th, 2015! See the chart below. Words: 600
14. New Analysis Suggests a Parabolic Rise in Price of Gold to $4,380/ozt.
According to my 2000 calculations, if interest rates and inflation stay constant over the next 2 years, we could expect to see (with 95.2% certainty) a parabolic peak price for gold of $4,380 per troy ounce by then! Let me explain what assumptions I made and the methods I undertook to arrive at that number and you can decide just how realistic it is. Words: 740
15. David Nichols: Expect to See $2,750 – $3,000 Gold By June 2013 – Here’s Why
The interim peaks in gold have been spaced 21 months apart over the past 6 years and have seen gains from 80.2% to 97.3%. As such, given the fact that the low of this last correction came in at $1,524 four months ago, we can expect gold to reach a new peak price of $2,750 to $3,000 in 17 months time (i.e. June/July 2013). [Let me explain in more detail.] Words: 976
16. Leeb: Gold Going to $3,000 Before the End of 2012!
The Fed is [going to] keep interest rates at zero until the end of 2014 [and that] is as aggressive as it gets and as bullish as it gets for gold. Inflation will be let out of the bag, maybe for the next three to four years. In this environment gold and silver are the best investments around…We are really talking about the next leg higher in this bull market…This is the leg I expect to take gold to $3,000 before the end of 2012.
Arnold,
Right you are! That being said, I could not agree more with everything else you say.
Lorimer
Lorimer,
Sorry to say you left out of your summary of the von Greyerz interview the key point.
He says that at current prices, precious metals represent about 1 percent of the total investment horizon.
But his follow up was that when big money such as pension funds as well as retail investors get interested in precious metals, demand and price will skyrocket.
Moreover, he says that even at today’s prices, an additional 1% demand for precious metals would represent 12 years of production at current production levels.
Conclusion? Any sizable increase in demand will quickly outstrip supply and cause the price of the metal to go parabolic.
Lastly, most folks I read now seem to think 2013 should be a humdinger for those of us in precious metals. I suspect the producing miners and silver will outgun gold bullion in that market. All the same, I kind of like having a whack of the stuff ‘off stream’ and out of the system and away from the confiscatory gaze of the tax folks.
Notice also today that Larry Edelson continues with his point that there will be one last test of price lows of gold and silver. It will be soon, deep and quickly over. It is then off to the races.
Arnold