Tag Archives: stagflation

As of early 2026, economic data points to steady GDP growth, yet labor market conditions tell a different story. Investment in artificial intelligence is supporting output and corporate margins, while hiring remains subdued and worker mobility constrained. Historical recoveries show employment often lags growth, but current conditions suggest a deeper structural shift. Automation, policy constraints, and uneven access to technology are reshaping how growth is generated and who benefits from it. The result is an expansion that favors capital over labor, raising concerns about income durability, consumer demand, and long-term economic stability if workforce participation continues to weaken.

The Federal Reserve's recent 50-basis point rate cut has bolstered optimism for a "soft landing," pushing the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ to new highs. While the move has alleviated uncertainty, investors remain wary of potential economic risks, including a slowing labor market and lingering inflation concerns. Despite the positive market reaction, some experts warn that market volatility could resurface if inflation picks up or the labor market weakens further. With the Fed expected to announce more rate cuts later this year, all eyes are on the November meeting for clues on future economic policy.

It is commonly said that the Fed needs to tighten to fight inflation, which will make things good again once it gets inflation under control. I believe this is both naïve and inconsistent with how the economic machine works. Here's why.

Total public debt outstanding has surpassed $30,000,000,000,000 which serves as a dire warning for American workers, investors, and retirees

If the dollar keeps rising - which I don't believe it will, or can - U.S. exports will fall and imports will rise, negatively affecting GDP and the trade deficit. Things are going to get choppy.

Frankly, I cannot see how one can distinguish the Fed from the European banking system and looking at things in this way provides a very different picture of the international landscape. The Fed is dependent upon euro printing in order to ramp up dollar printing, yet they are both one and the same. All of the GS boys running over to Europe after the Fed banks defaulted on the OTC derivatives takes on a new light in retrospect. It was a family reunion!

People ask me all the time where the price of gold is headed. I do not pretend to know, especially in the short-term. However, I understand the fundamentals and Roubini clearly doesn't, nor does he have a clue about money or what causes economic growth...In fact, having just read Nouriel Roubini's seven point analysis on the Bursting of the Gold Bubble, I am of the opinion that he doesn't get even one of the seven points correct. In this article I offer a point-by-point rebuttal.

Financial repression occurs when governments channel funds into their own sovereign bonds in order to reduce debt levels through mechanisms such as directed lending, caps on interest rates, capital controls, debt monetization, or by other means. The promise of financial repression is that it will hold down government borrowing costs and reduce government debt levels, but critics argue that financial repression merely targets the producers of society, i.e., the middle class, and therefore harms the economy. Let's take a look at financial repression ands its supposed pros and cons. Words: 1486

The world seems to be entering a new period of stagflation similar to the 1970s - high inflation and low GDP growth - but expect this to be continually denied by mainstream news sources. Words: 633

Harvard Professor/Economic Historian Niall Ferguson wrote recently that he is of the opinion that, while all the fiscal and monetary government stimuli undertaken by many of the governments of the world's developed countries since 2007 may have averted a second Great Depression, they will, most likely, still experience a "slight" depression. Campbell reviews the rationale behind Ferguson's position and then presents his view that, as he sees it, most developed countries will face, instead, "a form of" Stagflation where the prices of non-durable goods (food, energy, and basic consumables) inflate, but the price of durable goods (long-term assets such as houses, cars, refrigerators, etc.) deflate. Campbell's commentary makes for a very thought-provoking read. Words: 922