Thursday , 25 July 2024

Stock Market Predicts With 86-88% Accuracy Who Will Win in November


Stocks have an incredible track record of picking the President ahead of the election. The S&P 500’s price performance during the three calendar months leading up to the presidential election has predicted whether the President would be re-elected or replaced with 86% and 88% accuracy, respectively. We’re only 15 days into this indicator but, so far, it’s pointing to the incumbent. [There’s more! Read on.] Words: 250

 This post comes from Sam Ro ( which is made available by Lorimer Wilson, editor of (Your Key to Making Money!) and (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds). This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Ro goes on to say:

Earlier this year, Sam Stovall, stock market historian and Chief Investment Strategist of S&P Capital IQ wrote about the above in his Standard & Poor’s Stovall’s Sector Watch, going on to say:

  • An S&P 500 price rise from July 31 through October 31 traditionally has predicted the reelection of the incumbent person or party,
  • a price decline during this period has pointed to a replacement.
  • Since 1948, this election-prognostication technique did an excellent job, in our view, recording an 88% accuracy rate in predicting the re-election of the party in power (it failed in 1968).
  • What’s more, it recorded an 86% accuracy rate of identifying when the party in power would be replaced (it failed in 1956).
  • Therefore, pay attention to the market’s performance in the three months leading up to the presidential election, as it will probably do a better job than the plethora of political pundits prognosticating on the presidency.”

We’re only 15 days into this indicator but, so far, it’s pointing to the incumbent. Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 since July 31.


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Editor’s Note: The above post may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.

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