Monday , 2 October 2023

Odds Favor Another Major Decline – and Soon

…Multiple indicators are flashing warning signs that I believe are being ignored by short-termism and overly excited market prognosticators.

S&P 500 Performance To Date Similar to Actual Performance Trend in 1939

….I came across…[the following] chart on Twitter. I am not implying it plays out the same way, but to think that stocks can’t retest the lows of last year (or go lower) simply because of how violent the move back up has been goes against plenty of historical examples that say quite the opposite.

Strength in Utilities

Utilities are a key sector to pay attention to as their strength tends to precede corrections and volatility spikes. Utilities have held into the market’s advance of the last several weeks…[and] this is a warning – more often than not – that gains may indeed be bogus.

Market Volatility

…The ratio of high beta to low volatility is rolling over as stock indices “break out.” With active QE, the bull market was led by low volatility dividend paying stocks because of the hunt for yield insanity that the Fed lulled investors into. Rates are not at zero in the US, and to see low-volatility actually firming up in the last few weeks of the market’s push makes things suspect.

No – it doesn’t look right from a quant perspective, and doesn’t feel right from a subjective perspective and, with Treasuries on the shorter end of the curve getting more inverted and kinked, something is bothering the market here sub-consciously.

Whether the market will react remains to be seen but given this is a business about managing risk, it’s worth considering that the greatest risk may be thinking the worst is over. I believe the odds are favoring another major decline – and soon…If that doesn’t happen I’d rather be wrong and early than right and too late.

Editor’s Note: The above excerpts* from the original article have been edited ([ ]) and abridged (…) by Lorimer Wilson, editor of, for the sake of clarity and brevity. Also note that this complete paragraph must be included in any re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

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(*The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.)