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So says Jordan Roy-Byrne (thedailygold.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Junior Mining Stocks Have Bottomed.
[The following is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]Roy-Byrne goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
The TSX Venture (CDNX) is the market for juniors in Canada. The market consists of exploration companies focused on precious metals and other minerals, energy companies and some technology companies. It’s not a perfect indicator for the junior mining industry but it’s good enough for the experts. On Thursday the CDNX closed at a nine month high. No, that is not a misprint. The junior market reached a nine month high. It bottomed in late June, made a higher low in December and has surged 10% since.
For an American, GDXJ is the proxy for junior gold stocks or junior miners. I like to think of GDXJ as the “senior” or established juniors. The CDNX consists of many stocks trading under $1 and a $100M market cap while GDXJ is mostly comprised of companies in the $100M to $500M market cap range.
GDXJ declined 81% from its April 2011 peak to its December 2013 bottom. As we noted several weeks ago, GDXJ tried to penetrate its December low three times and failed. The market has since rallied back above the previous (June) low. Given the severity of the bear in terms of price and time, extreme negative sentiment and recent bullish price action I believe it is highly likely that the bottom is in.
Our frame of reference for the bear, the gold stock bear analogs chart continues to suggest that the bear market in senior gold stocks is all but over.
The juniors (both CDNX and GDXJ) peaked in April or five months before the senior gold producers. Hence, it makes sense that the juniors would bottom first. The assertion from the analogs chart (that the seniors may have bottomed or are very close) gives us further confidence that the juniors have bottomed.
Most of the stocks that we follow bottomed in June. The following chart, which was sent to premium subscribers is an equal weighted index of 15 of our favorite gold and silver stocks. The index bottomed in late June 2013 and made a strong higher low in December. It would have to decline 26% to test the June low.
Extremely bearish sentiment, compelling valuations and an extreme oversold condition can create a compelling contrarian opportunity. However, that opportunity can remain far fetched without some positive price action. We now have the positive price action that allows us to call a bottom in the mining stocks and strongly so in the junior gold stocks.
The risk has shifted from getting caught in a final plunge to missing out on the rebound.
[Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]
*http://thedailygold.com/junior-mining-stocks-bottomed/ (© 2014 The Daily Gold. All Rights Reserved, If you’d be interested in learning about the companies poised to rocket out of this bottom then we invite you to go here to learn more about our premium service.)
Related Articles: (The articles posted on munKNEE.com deliberately present a diverse perspective on subjects discussed. Below are links, with introductory paragraphs, to a variety of related articles designed to help you become truly informed regarding both sides of the issues so that you can assess the merits of all points of view and come to your own conclusion.)
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The outlook for many junior resource companies in 2013 is grim so investors should focus on those who own quality undeveloped gold and silver deposits in safe stable countries. Such companies offer exceptional value in that they provide the best exposure to a rising precious metals price environment – and the assets the world’s mining companies desperately need. [Let me explain.] Words: 1328; Charts: 15 Read More »
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Leverage is the simple answer. It is not uncommon for junior mining companies to experience huge gains (10x or more) very quickly as news of a discovery is made known to the public. Words: 893
The precious metals complex is arguably at its most bearish sentiment since the start of the bull market 12 years ago. Either the bull market is over or this will prove to be a tremendous buying opportunity. It’s clear that anyone who doesn’t believe in Gold for the long-term has sold and judging from the sentiment indicators, Gold is now in much stronger hands than when it was trading at these prices at the 2012 and 2011 lows. Despite all of the bearish sentiment, the panic and bad-mouthing, Gold (and Silver) has maintained its consolidation. Thus, if Gold is able to hold this support and turn higher, it should approach $1750 to $1800 faster than one would think. This year will go down in history as one of the best buying opportunities for both the metals and the stocks. Words: 675; Charts: 3
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13. Focus on Quality Junior Gold & Silver Companies to Maximize Returns – Here’s Why & How
The outlook for many junior resource companies in 2013 is grim so investors should focus on those who own quality undeveloped gold and silver deposits in safe stable countries. Such companies offer exceptional value in that they provide the best exposure to a rising precious metals price environment – and the assets the world’s mining companies desperately need. [Let me explain.] Words: 1328; Charts: 15 Read More »
14. Gold & Silver Miners: What’s the Best Time to Invest in the Producers – and in the Juniors?
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