I think the big issue going forward is the growing shortage of available physical gold. I strongly believe one of the reasons for the shortage is a lot of it is headed East. The last four or five months of the year gold should challenge, and easily take out, its all-time high.
So says John Embry in edited excerpts from his interview with Eric King of King World News which can be read in its entirety here.
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Embry concludes his remarks by saying:
“For what it’s worth, there is an enormous amount of interference in the gold and silver share market. I think that will end as soon as gold and silver break their highs. When that happens, I think it’s going to unleash a rally in these stocks that is absolutely going to stun people.”
People will be shocked that don’t understand the full extent of the manipulation and how cheap these stocks have become as a result of it.”
Editor’s Note: The above may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
Some of the most rewarding set ups in investing come when extremes have been reached. Currently the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index has dropped to 7.14% – an extreme reading, one rarely ever seen, and not since the panic drop in March of 2009. Following that signal, GDX rallied for the next 2½ years increasing over 4 times in value. As such, a move up in the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index from these historically low levels could signal another major move in gold mining stocks….[Let me explain further.] Words: 1078
The banks don’t have the gold the customers are paying them to have on deposit…and eventually there will be panic because…[of that]….I just see massive turmoil when people finally realize the banks don’t have their gold….You will see governments frantically trying to substitute fiat money for gold because this is going to feed on itself….The banks take in customers gold and charge them fees for storing the gold as allocated, but then they turn right around and lease it out to the market to aid in price suppression. This is the kind of thing that will end in catastrophe.
I think the junior gold miners sector could up ten fold over the next few years based on gold just going to $3,000 or $3,500 [let alone to] $5,000 or $10,000 which I think is possible. Here’s why.
We’re invested in gold stocks not just to make money, but for the chance to change our lifestyles and with their lackadaisical [dare I say dismal] year-to-date performance, one may begin to wonder if they’re still going to bring the magic. [Here are my views on the subject.] Words: 740
We will not be surprised if gold revisits the high of last year ($1,900) or pushes through to new all- time highs by year end….and gold stocks should respond very favorably to the perception of a directional change in bullion. We believe that the ten month decline in the gold price has been the major headwind for gold mining stocks….but if gold were to trade at $2000/oz. later this year, and should the ratio of gold mining shares (XAU basis) return to the mid -point of its range since the launch of GLD in 2004, or roughly 15% versus the current level roughly 10%, mining stocks could double on a 25% increase in the gold price.
If investors step back and look at this from a longer-term perspective, they will realize that politicians feel the only way out of this mess is to print more money. After the money printing will come the inflation. It will be higher inflation than anything we’ve seen in the post-World War II period and it will send gold, silver and all commodities skyrocketing.
The Fed is [going to] keep interest rates at zero until the end of 2014 [and that] is as aggressive as it gets and as bullish as it gets for gold. Inflation will be let out of the bag, maybe for the next three to four years. In this environment gold and silver are the best investments around…We are really talking about the next leg higher in this bull market…This is the leg I expect to take gold to $3,000 before the end of 2012.
I think scarcity in oil is a dramatic tailwind for gold. Politicians will inflate. They don’t want oil to bring down the economy like it did in 2008. Remember, this inflation will take place with commodity prices already high. So this will create significant inflation. This means higher gold and silver. Gold at $3,000 by the end of the year, easy. Silver $60, $70, easy.
Once every year gold and stocks form a major yearly cycle low while other commodities form a major cycle bottom every 2 1/2 to 3 years. Occasionally all three of these major cycles hit at the same time….That’s what’s happening right now and it should lead to a powerful rally over the next 2 years, culminating in 2014 when the dollar forms its next 3 year cycle low. Words: 622
Gold stocks are now trading as though peace, prosperity, balanced budgets, and the repudiation of fiat currencies were about to break out across the globe, sending the metal back to $1,000 per ounce in the very near future. Given the stagflation conditions in the developed world, however, and governments’ proclivity to use money printing in order to jump-start an economy, it may be wise to take advantage of the current discount being offered on mining shares.
Most novice investors don’t understand the fundamentals and so they are puking up the mining stocks because they just want out but…this is when you want to buy, when sentiment is negative and fundamentals are astoundingly positive.
We suspect that many precious metals investors are saying, “We don’t want to play anymore!” and our reply is, “You mean you want to quit right now? Right at the bottom of this cycle? You must be crazy – and that is crazy with a capital C!” True, this is a very challenging market environment for resource shares, but we know what the ultimate outcome will be: higher share prices. The only question is “when” and our opinion is that we are very close in time (within days or a week or two at most) of being able to say that the lows are behind us. Let me explain. Words: 785
Before we end the year we will hit new highs in both [gold and silver]. Then the mining stocks [will] react. The big problem has been [to date has been that] there is not this momentum in the prices of bullion, which is keeping people away from the gold stocks. If we can get the price of gold and silver going back up, I’m sure people will come back into the mining stocks.
If we’re not at a bottom [in gold and silver and precious metals stocks], we’re very close to it. The sentiment is dismal and you can see that particularly in the stocks which are almost tragic. I’m shocked quite frankly at the valuations and how low they are. In the fullness of time, this will be seen as one of the great buying opportunities of all-time.
Whatever their reasons, the number of investors wanting exposure to gold is increasing. Many who ignored it a decade ago are now buying. Those who started buying, say, five years ago, continue purchasing it today in spite of paying twice what they paid then. Slowly but surely, it’s becoming more important to more people…but what happens when it becomes a must-own asset to a substantial majority instead of a small minority? Sure, the price will rise, probably parabolically, but putting aside speculation on the price of gold for now, have you thought about what happens if you have trouble finding any actual, physical gold to buy? [Let’s explore that possibility and what that would mean for gold stocks in such an eventuality.] Words: 870
We’re making history here. Gold stocks have never been this undervalued before. We’ve had a 12 year bull market in gold, but we’ve also had a 15 year bear market in the mining shares…It’s very rare in market history to see an outlier like this. This is an extraordinary event. Years from now we are going to look back and shake our heads in disbelief at how undervalued gold stocks were in 2012.
By almost any measure, gold stocks are undervalued but should we load up? Gold mining companies are earning record margins. Stock prices, however, have not responded in similar fashion but when the broader investing community begins to take notice, investors will snap up these highly profitable stocks and push prices higher. The “catch up” in gold stocks could be tremendous but the question, of course, is timing. We don’t know when gold stocks will begin to catch up and the data don’t suggest they must rise right now or that they’ve hit bottom so should we load up just now? Words: 590
Our Fractal Model suggests the wave for Gold in US Dollars will sweep up into the $3500 to $3600 area into the mid-year time-frame. The leading edge of that time-frame begins in May and extends out for a few months. A potential for Gold to spike to a $3900 extended fib level exists. Like all parabolic moves in Gold, the late stages create the biggest price movements. Personally, I would be happy with a huge Gold run up to the $3200 level. Words: 1400
The “Pareto principle” – it’s often referred to as the “80-20 rule” – states that 80% of the effects of something come from just 20% of the causes (that is that 80% of people control 20% of the wealth, that 80% of sales come from 20% of your customers, etc.) and a new report by Erste Group, the Austrian investment bank, says this principle can be applied to bull markets as well, including the current bull market in gold, and following this line of thinking, you get an $8,300 price target for gold by the spring of 2015. Words: 285
Lately analyst after analyst (161 at last count) has been climbing on board the golden wagon with prognostications as to what the parabolic peak price for gold will eventually be. That being said, however, only 51 have been bold enough to include the year in which they think their peak price estimate will occur and they are listed below. Take a look at who is projecting what, by when and why. Words: 644
According to a recent Elliott Wave theory analysis gold is about to go parabolic reaching $3,495 in June 2013, $6,233 in April 2014, $10,899 in Sept. 2014, $18,712 in December 2014 and culminating in a parabolic peak price of $31,672 on January 16th, 2015! See the chart below. Words: 600
According to my 2000 calculations, if interest rates and inflation stay constant over the next 2 years, we could expect to see (with 95.2% certainty) a parabolic peak price for gold of $4,380 per troy ounce by then! Let me explain what assumptions I made and the methods I undertook to arrive at that number and you can decide just how realistic it is. Words: 740
The interim peaks in gold have been spaced 21 months apart over the past 6 years and have seen gains from 80.2% to 97.3%. As such, given the fact that the low of this last correction came in at $1,524 four months ago, we can expect gold to reach a new peak price of $2,750 to $3,000 in 17 months time (i.e. June/July 2013). [Let me explain in more detail.] Words: 976
When considering that the conditions which propelled gold and silver to their 1980 highs are much worse today, I predict both metals will easily eclipse those previous highs. That means $2,500 gold and $150 silver at the very minimum, but more likely a parabolic ascent to $8,890 gold and $517 silver before all is said and done. Words: 1063
There will be a catalyst coming soon, probably some concerted action of money printing between the Fed, IMF and the ECB. That will happen as a result of the economies, worldwide, collapsing….The catalyst could come from anywhere but the money printing will be part of the next move in gold, that’s for certain….[and it] will lead to collapsing currencies, and investors buying gold at any price…I see gold reaching $3,500 to $5,000 in the next 12 to 18 months. Within 3 years, I see the gold price reaching at least $10,000.
For the past eighteen months, gold stocks have been pummeled…What’s going to move these darn stocks? Will their day ever come? Could our research – gulp – be wrong? Jokes have even started circulating…[such as] a) What’s the difference between a seagull and a gold stock investor? The seagull can still make a deposit on a Mercedes. b) Gold equities may be bad, but I slept like a baby last night. I woke up every hour and cried. Laugh or cry, however, underneath this heap of stock-certificate debris is the contrarian opportunity of a lifetime. That’s a strong statement, I know, but below I present numerous well-researched reasons why I’m convinced gold stocks are one spark away from igniting the portfolios of those with the cash to buy, courage to act, and patience to hold. Words: 2800
The Western world is going to need even more easing, more money. All of this is incredibly bullish for gold longer-term. I do think you have to navigate the end of the euro before the next massive move in gold, but that’s coming. It’s possible that gold may get hit initially as the euro fails, but you have to buy it if it does.
Around this point in the fractal cycle in the late 70’s, Gold busted out of its channel to rise sharply higher, along with Silver. Silver’s channel top will lie up around $68 to $70 over the coming months which we believe will be reached in 2012. The next higher angled resistance bands for Silver run from $112 to $115, and then up at the $123 area. By the end of the Silver Bull, we expect to see Silver reach $500+. Words: 1765
Silver will climb to $68-$70 in 2 to 3 months once resistance at $35 is taken out… In many ways silver is positioned today like it was back in the summer of 2010… Regarding gold, as goes oil, so goes gold…and the bottom line is that the wind is at the back of the bulls in both the gold and oil markets.
This article was prompted by a question enquiring what the silver price might be if my gold forecast of $4,500 proved to be correct [see my article entitled “Alf Field: Correction in Gold is OVER and On Way to $4,500+!” and I have settled on] a target price of $158.34 for silver. [Let me explain how I came to that specific price.] Words: 850
There is a massive amount of energy underlying the silver market, and when it is ready to unleash, we will see price/value increases that will stun even the most ardent silverbugs…The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after the price of silver has surpassed the $50/ozt. level. [Let me explain.] Words: 685
If you concur with the 159 analysts (see below) that maintain that physical gold is going to go parabolic in price in the next few years to $3,000, $5,000 or even $10,000 or more then you should seriously consider buying physical silver. Why? Because the historical gold:silver ratio is so way out of wack that silver should appreciate much more than gold as it goes parabolic in the years to come. Indeed, silver could easily reach $100 – $200 per troy ounce, maybe even $300 and conceivably in excess of $400 depending on how high gold goes. The aforementioned may be hard to believe but an analysis below of the historical price relationship between silver and gold suggests that such will most likely occur if gold does, indeed, go parabolic. Take a look. Words: 1423