Tuesday , 18 June 2024

I Will Not Turn Bullish On Gold Until 1 of 2 Things Happen

“Follow the munKNEEvia twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report

My forecast — despite all the hate mail and pressure I get to change  it — has not changed. Based on my systems and models, I will not turn bullish on gold until either spot gold has closed above $1,823 an ounce on a weekly and monthly  basis – or gold cracks the $1,527 level and plunges to the $1,400 level or a tad lower. I know that’s not what you want to hear. I know that you are as eager  as I am to see the next leg of gold’s bull market begin….[but its] time to shine is not here yet. It will come again, though, so stay the course, build up your ammo, and be ready to pull the trigger when I issue a headline like “Back Up the Truck, NOW!”

So writes Larry Edelson (www.uncommonwisdom.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Be ready to pull the trigger when …

This article is presented compliments of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Edelson goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

My models say: The next phase of gold’s bull market (and all commodities for that matter) is not yet here which is precisely why I’m still not ready to stick my head out and load up on more gold. Nor should you….

I know that’s not what you want to hear. I know that you are as eager  as I am to see the next leg of gold’s bull market begin. I know that you want to buy more gold, load up on it and ride it to glory over the next few years. So do I, but when a market as sensitive as gold is to:

  • geopolitical events,
  • money-printing and bankrupt governments and
  • doesn’t  do what logic says it should be doing

then something else must be going on. Markets  are never wrong so what is gold really telling us?

  • With all the money-printing going on, why hasn’t gold broken out yet?
  • With busted governments in Europe, why isn’t gold rallying?
  • With new war threats coming in from North Korea and from terrorists,  why isn’t gold flying to the upside?
  • With all of the above, why is gold…plung[ing] anew? Why?

To those of you looking for a fundamental explanation, I see two major forces at work right now that are overpowering all  the others:

1. Money-printing — even when virtually  all major central banks are doing it — means nothing when most of the money being  printed is merely ending up sitting in the banks. I’ve said that before and it’s still largely the case. It means:

  • consumers aren’t interested in adding to debt by increasing  their borrowings and credit lines and, [as such,] the velocity of money, or its turnover,  is virtually non-existent….[and]
  • corporations are conserving cash and largely paying  down or refinancing debt rather than taking on new debt or choosing to buy back their own shares.

2. Fears of North Korea’s recent threats or renewed terrorist uprisings are — at this time — also actually suppressing gold.  It’s causing just enough geopolitical uncertainty to put savvy investors in a “cash mode” of thinking and not quite enough uncertainty to drive them directly into  gold.

Both of the above forces will — down the road — become bullish forces  for gold…but none of the above forces will become bullish until it’s time for them to do so and, based on my work, that’s not likely until later this year – and  from much lower prices…

I know it’s difficult to understand but…[one must] listen to the markets and what they are telling you. The markets, I repeat, are never wrong. Only the  interpretations and expectations are so stay the course.

  • Build up your stash of cash ammo so that when it does come time to pull the trigger on  gold again and back up the truck, you will  be able to [do so].
  • Ditto for silver and other natural-resource and tangible-asset investments.

While their time to shine is not here yet, it will come again, I [can] assure you [of] that. You want to be fully ready and able to capitalize on these forces.  If you listen to the pundits who proclaim the next bull market is here every time  gold rallies $5 or $10 … or even $25, you won’t be ready. You’ll be far more likely  to suffer massive losses. Ditto for silver.

Stay the course, build up your ammo, and be ready to pull the trigger  when I issue a headline like “Back Up the Truck, NOW!”

Editor’s Note: The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.

*http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/be-ready-to-pull-the-trigger-when-15658?FIELD9=1 (Written by Larry Edelson; Copyright © 2012 Weiss Research, Inc.)

Register HERE for Your Daily Intelligence Report Newsletter

The “best of the best” financial, economic and investment articles
An “edited excerpts” format to provide brevity & clarity for a fast & easy read
Don’t waste time searching for informative articles. We do it for you!
Register HERE and automatically receive every article posted
“Follow Us” on twitter & “Like Us” on Facebook

Related Articles:

1. A Plea From Jim Sinclair: You Are Being Played – Do NOT Give Up Your Gold!


The paper gold market is being used to shake the bullish tree harder this time than any time before because of what is to come.  Fear is the most powerful emotion in markets and it is being used perfectly to enrich the grand names of finance at your expense. We are right in front of that time when the market performs a classic bottom both in shares and physical. From this point gold is going to and through $3500 [so] if you are unable to buy at this time there is one thing you can do – to get into the fight and out of the stands. That act is do nothing, and do not capitulate. Let them play the price game, but give them nothing whatsoever of yours. Words: 758

2. Jim Sinclair: This is War – Don’t Play Their Game – Stand Firm – Stay the Course – Gold is Going to $3,500!


There is a nasty game taking place which relies entirely on scaring you out of your wits. Yes, out of your mind, so you sell something of great value for peanuts to the exact party playing with your head via price. When you must look at the action, remember there is a buyer for every seller. That buyer is not scared out of his/her wits if you sell to stop the pain you are in. This period is, in my opinion, the last and largest attack you will see perpetrated on us before gold closes over $3500. This period of pain will not be measured in months, but counted in history as days. Stand firm and stay the course! Words: 787

3. Gold & Silver: Its What the Charts Say, Not Fundamentals Or Opinion, and the Charts Say…


All fundamentals and opinions are useless in the markets because they pertain to timing, and timing plays a huge role when investing/trading….[and only] put one’s belief system into a context with regard to the market[s]….It does not matter what others say about the market; what matters is what the market says about others. The market is, and always will be, the final arbiter of all “facts” and “opinions.” [This article give an update on exactly what the charts are currently saying about gold and silver.]

4. These Charts Provide Detailed Insights Into Gold & Silver Price Activity


All known information is contained in the charts, and being able to read them is a distinct advantage.  The best way to achieve that advantage is to learn to make distinctions contained in the charts from one day/week/month to the next and this article does just that for both gold and silver. [Take a look.] Words: 1375; Charts: 6

5. Egon von Greyerz: The Real Move in Gold Hasn’t Started Yet, It Is Still to Come – Here’s Why


After having compounded at over 19% p.a. over 11 years, gold certainly should be allowed to just gain 7% in 2012 without some people calling an end to the bull market. Those who believe the bull market is over are mainly the investors who have missed gold going up almost 7 times in since 1999. Let me be very clear, the real move in gold hasn’t started yet, it is still to come. Here are my reasons why. Words: 1000

6. 5 Reasons to Short Gold In 2013


There are significant challenges to gold prices increasing in 2013. In fact, I believe that gold prices should move down in 2013 because of five strong headwinds, elaborated in this article. Words: 464

7. Gold Stocks Go Up Dramatically In Inauguration Years – Will Another +20% Increase Occur This Year?


President Obama will be sworn into office for a second term on January 21 and that’s good news if you own gold stocks. Why? Because gold stocks, [as represented by the XAU] have increased, on average, by 20% during inaugural years since 1985 (28% in 2005; 36% in 2003). While there’s no real rhyme or reason as to why gold stocks thrive in inauguration years – statistical anomaly or otherwise – it is yet another reason to buy gold stocks right now. Words: 312; Charts: 1

8. Gold Is Looking Increasingly Vulnerable – Here’s Why


The threats of global recession, insurmountable debt, terrible government policy, central bank support, and many other very persuasive arguments present gold as a very appealing investment or safe haven but all of this is an illusion. Gold was a sensible investment in the early part of the bull market (1999-07), but has now become a false sense of security for many investors who will soon learn the hard way. Not only are the fundamentals already priced in, the technicals severely weakened, and the extremes in gold optimism easily apparent, but the bad news for gold could soon get much worse. The next weeks or few months will hopefully give us a lot more clarity. Words: 1170

9. Bull Markets Always End With a Bang, Not a Whimper, So Gold’s Run Should Have More Legs

[Here is a summary of my]…thoughts on the 2011 gold price peak relative to the last time a long term bull market ended (back in 1980): Long-term bull markets almost always end with a bang, not a whimper, and last year’s price peak was clearly the latter. A 25% rise over a period of about two months last year [does not an] end-of-cycle, blow-off top [make]. No, I think there’s still some room to run for gold if for no other reason than that we haven’t even come close to the “mania” stage that characterizes the end of long-term market moves…[Let me explain further.] Words: 359; Charts: 1

10. It’s Time to Seriously Consider SHORTING Gold – Here’s Why


I view the current market weakness in gold, coupled with the pullback in trader positions, as a shorting opportunity which is strong in terms of reward vs. risk. I have come to that conclusion by questioning the assumptions that many make about it, isolating its fundamental drivers and providing a trading recommendation as to where I believe the price is headed in the future. Let me share my analyses with you. (Words: 1440; Charts: 4; Tables: 1)