Whatever their reasons, the number of investors wanting exposure to gold is increasing. Many who ignored it a decade ago are now buying. Those who started buying, say, five years ago, continue purchasing it today in spite of paying twice what they paid then. Slowly but surely, it’s becoming more important to more people…but what happens when it becomes a must-own asset to a substantial majority instead of a small minority? Sure, the price will rise, probably parabolically, but putting aside speculation on the price of gold for now, have you thought about what happens if you have trouble finding any actual, physical gold to buy? [Let’s explore that possibility and what that would mean for gold stocks in such an eventuality.] Words: 870
So says Jeff Clark (www.caseyresearch.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Clark goes on to say, in part:
The following chart shows the growth in the world’s population vs. the total supply of gold from around the world. By this I mean new supply from mines, not the existing holdings of refined gold of various sorts held by governments, institutions, and individuals around the world.
The world population…has grown roughly 15% just since the year 2000 while the new supply of gold from all sources (mining, scrap, de-hedging) has fallen 4.2%. The rate of growth in the world’s population last year was 1.1% while was roughly similar to the increase in annual mine production. The trend right now is clearly for the growth in population to surpass the global supply of gold coming to market while, at the same time, demand keeps growing. China [alone] imported 3.3 million ounces of gold last November – and total global mining production outside China is just 6.4 million ounces per month. Gold bullion held by the world’s central banks is at a six-year high – but it’s roughly 15% below the amount they held in 1980 and has fallen in half as a percent of their total reserves.
Silver supply and demand paints an even starker picture: last year, for the first time in history, sales of silver Eagle and Maple Leaf coins surpassed domestic production in both the U.S. and Canada. Throw in the fact that by most estimates less than 5% of the U.S. population owns any gold or silver and you can see how precarious the situation is. A supply squeeze is not out of the question – rather it is coming to look more and more likely with each passing month. This is great for gold owners and speculators, but it has further implications: As increasing numbers of people view gold as a must-own asset, and as supply is not keeping up with demand, where is the next logical place for investors to turn to get exposure – silver!
Gold and Silver Stocks
Imagine the plight of the mainstream investor who calls a bullion dealer and is told they have no inventory and don’t know when they’ll get any. Picture those with wealth finally becoming convinced they must own precious metals and being informed they’ll have to put their name on a waiting list. Imagine a pension fund or other institutional investor scrambling to get more metal for their fund and being advised the amount they want is “currently unavailable.” Mining equities would be the fastest way to meet that demand – and it’s already happening on a small scale.
It also won’t be just investors buying stocks; sovereign wealth funds will buy entire companies… Meanwhile, most institutional investors are underweight gold and gold stocks – if they own them at all. The average pension fund devotes approximately 0.15% of its assets to gold stocks; doubling its holdings – still just one-third of one percent – would represent $47 billion of investment in the gold industry. If they wanted 1% exposure, $117 billion would flood our sector. In addition, don’t forget about the needs of hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, mutual funds, private equity funds, private wealth funds, insurance companies, ETFs, and millions of worldwide retail investors like me and you. All these entities could easily view a shift into gold stocks as a viable way to gain exposure to precious metals. It’ll be the next logical step to take – maybe the only sensible step available if the supply of physical metal remains constrained. It will feel like the most natural thing in the world for them to do.
Make no mistake: if this bull market continues, gold [and silver] stocks will truly soar. An increasingly desperate clamor for exposure to gold could light a short fuse for our market sector. It’s not here yet, but when the rush starts, it will be both breathtaking and life-changing. Are you positioned?
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With the present major correction in gold, silver and the mining sector it is important to look at the big picture and see what the charts are saying from a technical fractal relationship with what happened back in 1979 when the last truely major bull run occurred. To date the situation is, frankly, no different than it was back then unfolding just as it should. As a result we can expect MAJOR upward price action in physical gold and silver and in their mining (producers, developers, explorers and royalty streamers alike) in the next few months on their way to their respective parabolic peaks in the years ahead. Read on. Words: 1604
By almost any measure, gold stocks are undervalued but should we load up? Gold mining companies are earning record margins. Stock prices, however, have not responded in similar fashion but when the broader investing community begins to take notice, investors will snap up these highly profitable stocks and push prices higher. The “catch up” in gold stocks could be tremendous but the question, of course, is timing. We don’t know when gold stocks will begin to catch up and the data don’t suggest they must rise right now or that they’ve hit bottom so should we load up just now? Words: 590
With gold miners, in general, so attractively valued relative to the gold bullion price, the question becomes which stocks are the most compelling and have the best leverage to robust precious metals prices…In order to find the diamonds in the rough, I use what I call “The Five M’s” for mining stocks… Market cap, Management, Money, Minerals and Mine life cycle. [Let me explain each .] Words: 1146
The behavior of the stocks of the various gold miners in recent times warrants special attention. Let’s take a look at the GDX:GLD ratio, the Gold Miners Bullish Index and the volatility of the currencies and stock market indices of the emerging markets where most of these mines are located and determine what they suggest as to what we could well expect in the performance of such stocks in the months ahead. Words: 585
A tsunami doesn’t start with a bang, but with a whimper. The first sign is a little hump in the water way out in the distance that is barely notable. Anyone who catches a glimpse of it simply continues to expect the day to be the same as the last many days – calm and beautiful waters along the shore. This is the point where we are, today in the Precious Metals sector. Many have seen the little roll of water out in the distance as Gold edged up in the first move of a more parabolic slope, yet most investors are mired in the same expectations of yesterday – a return for Gold to correct down into a lower base. Our analysis based on the fractal relationship to 1979 shows, however, that the mid 900s are a realistic target for the HUI by the end of the year or early in 2012; that $52 to $56 should be achievable for silver, with $58 to $62 as real possibilities; and that Gold should go the $2250 level followed by $2500 with the potential for $3,000, or a bit higher, now on the radar screen. Let me explain why that is the case. Words: 2130
With gold recently trading at its nominal high it is only natural that investor curiosity about precious metals mining companies should start to grow and the fact that relatively few investors know much about the various types of companies in this market sector is an indication that this market is many years away from peaking. [This article will change all that.] Words: 1912
While investing in gold mining companies is not quite as simple as novices to this sector might at first conclude, neither is it so overwhelmingly complicated as to make these companies inaccessible to individual, retail investors. Below are a number of things to look for when considering an investment in such companies. Words: 2745
Both gold and silver continue to trade well below their inflation-adjusted highs in nominal terms, and the market is now beginning to acknowledge the profit potential that precious metals equities offer at today’s bullion prices. We believe the equities will offer more upside than the bullion over time. Many of the smaller names are well priced and have momentum behind them. The prospects for gold stocks look extremely bright [for very good reasons. Let us explain.] Words: 2250
So far in 2011 gold prices have increased [approx. 8] percent.. while the stocks of gold [mining] companies in the HUI have… declined 13%…[As such,] this year’s carnage has created a substantial opportunity to buy healthy gold mining companies at their second-cheapest level in nearly 30 years compared to gold bullion. [Let me explain.] Words: 1265
In mining exploration, an “anomaly” is a geological formation that might attract a prospector’s interest. However, one rule of thumb is that you have to look at 1,000 anomalies to find one prospect and fewer than one prospect in a thousand turns into a mine. In other words, finding a mine is a million-to-one shot and that is one reason why junior mining stocks are highly speculative. Another reason is that it’s much easier to launch and promote one of these stocks than it is to build a profitable business. So junior mines attract more than their share of unscrupulous operators and stock promoters. Words: 504
We are about to encounter major inflation and the absolute best hedge against such inflation is by investing in the companies that mine gold and silver. You often get leverage of 2 to 4 times the price appreciation of gold or silver. If gold goes up by 50%, your miners may very well double or triple in value. Words: 1426
Leverage is the simple answer. It is not uncommon for junior mining companies to experience huge gains (10x or more) very quickly as news of a discovery is made known to the public. Words: 893