Stock Indices

I call on the financial community to take a critical look at the Dow Divisor. If it is retained investors will continue to be deceived with every new transition from one phase to another and the greatest of all Ponzi schemes will have major financial consequences for every investor.

Divergences between fundamentals, confidence and the valuation of markets are large and, as such, cannot last for long. The only question is how - and how quickly - this correction occurs.

The belief is that rising interest rates (as is currently occurring) are a sign that the economy is improving as activity is pushing borrowing rates higher. In turn, as investors, this bodes well for corporate profitability which supports the current valuations of stocks in the market. While this seems completely logical the question is whether, or not, this is really the case?

Too often investors focus on the negative, lose confidence in stocks and, as a result, they can miss great bull markets. I believe when it comes to finding investment opportunities it’s all about both monetary and fiscal policy. As such, I encouraged investors to follow the money. With that in mind, here are two of my favorite charts that I believe demonstrate how investors can do exactly that.

I generally shy away from making time-specific economic and stock marketstockcrashimages-1 predictions simply because odds are very low you’ll be correct on both the prediction and the timing. However, there are certain times when the environment is conducive for a prediction that comes along with an expiration date. Today is one of those times.

With the stock market up over 20% since we forecast in July, 2012 that we would see the Dow at 20,000...[by the end of the] decade, our forecast seems less ambitious than back then. US stocks are not overpriced or overleveraged, and remain more attractive than at prior peaks. As such, based on current conditions, we now project that...the Dow will reach 20,000 by late 2018.

According to some pundits, the market is dangerously close to a repeat performance of 1987. Today, I'm going to show you why they're wrong.

Support is support until it collapses but if the 10-year support line for the HUI Index is breached it is a loooong way down!!!

History clearly shows that stocks don't fall during periods of rising interest rates. Sure, they might fall a little when a rate hike is announced - maybe for a week or so - but they usually bounce back quickly - and then they go higher.

Stocks have generally performed very well in rising-rate environments but the current rate cycle is unlike any other of the past 40 years, keeping investors on edge. A lot will depend on how inflation behaves.