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The U.S. stock market rally that kicked off the New Year continued last week, and after only two weeks, US stocks are up around 3% for the year. European stocks have posted similar gains and equities in Japan have advanced even further. What’s behind this rally – and more importantly, can it continue? In my view, the rally can be attributed to three factors. Words: 615

Risk is inevitably mispriced when unprecedented intervention suppresses risk [and, as such, the] policies that appear to have been successful for the past four years may continue to appear successful for a year or two longer but that very success comes at a steep, and as yet unpaid, price in suppressed systemic risk, cost, and consequence. [This article identifies 8] key dynamics that will continue to play out over the next two to three years [and an] understanding of the eventual consequence of such influential trends - that risk is inevitably mispriced when unprecedented intervention suppresses risk. Words: 1299

As we begin 2013, there has been an important shift in regards to precious metals...the decoupling that has taken place between the equity market and the precious metals complex...[which] began nearly 17 months ago (decouplings of three or six months are not significant). Since the Euro crisis in summer 2011, the equity market has rallied nearly 30% and reached a five-year high, but gold stocks are down by more than 30%...[and, as such,] precious metals cannot begin an impulsive sustained bull move if the equity market continues to move higher. The equity market has to struggle with resistance and begin a mild cyclical bear move. While over the near-term precious metals can confirm a higher low, the 2013 success of the sector depends on the struggles of conventional stocks. [This article explains why that is the case and uses several charts to illustrate the point.] Words: 899

This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written. It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions. To get the full benefit, I urge readers to spend some time reading the 3 background links and watching the 8 videos. Words: 1279; Videos: 8; Charts: 2; Table: 1

President Obama will be sworn into office for a second term on January 21 and that's good news if you own gold stocks. Why? Because gold stocks, [as represented by the XAU] have increased, on average, by 20% during inaugural years since 1985 (28% in 2005; 36% in 2003). While there's no real rhyme or reason as to why gold stocks thrive in inauguration years - statistical anomaly or otherwise - it is yet another reason to buy gold stocks right now. Words: 312; Charts: 1

As Winston Churchill once said: “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty” and in that vain I challenge all readers to fight off the negativity, see long-term opportunity in global equity markets and, most importantly, remain invested. Your future self may thank you. Words: 732; Charts: 6

If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling, the result will be no different than the Jones family deciding that they have maxed out their credit cards and that, if they continue borrowing and spending over their means, there will be significant pain to the family at best and bankruptcy at worst. Any attempt to prove otherwise is futile because it's just not true! [To further make his point the author provides below 7 other examples of why the economics of government are no different than those of the typical American household.] Words: 585

The threats of global recession, insurmountable debt, terrible government policy, central bank support, and many other very persuasive arguments present gold as a very appealing investment or safe haven but all of this is an illusion. Gold was a sensible investment in the early part of the bull market (1999-07), but has now become a false sense of security for many investors who will soon learn the hard way. Not only are the fundamentals already priced in, the technicals severely weakened, and the extremes in gold optimism easily apparent, but the bad news for gold could soon get much worse. The next weeks or few months will hopefully give us a lot more clarity. Words: 1170

While George Soros spent over 40 years managing funds at Soros Fund Management, racking up an incredible average annual return of 20%, he is arguably most known for the huge bets he made against the British pound in 1992. He felt that the European Exchange Rate Mechanism overvalued the pound and that the system was inherently unsustainable so he bet $10 billion on this view and reaped more than $2 billion in profits from his trades. [This article outlines his the life - both professional and personal - of this epitome of a hedge fund manager.] Words: 972

Those dependent on the welfare state are unaware that their benefits are not sustainable. Most believe tomorrow will be like today and the checks will keep coming from Mother Government. Political power was gained based on promising these benefits. No politician will risk his position by trying to reduce them. No democratic society has ever rolled them back via peaceful political means. [At worst,] the economy and society could end up in ashes [and, at best,] the world is in for a long period of stagnation, retrogression and conflict. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 1115