Strategies

A sensible story of causation regarding oil prices and stock prices made by countless economists is that "rising oil prices increase the cost of energy and therefore reduce corporate profits and consumers' spending power, thus putting drags on stock prices and the economy." Stunningly, as far as I can determine, however, no evidence supports that claim, as the discussion below will show.

One of the great myths about investing that we’re told by the mainstream investment education is that we should “buy and hold” for the long term [but, as this article will explain,] it’s time to move on from the mainstream. There’s too much technology and too many global options now to be lulled into conventional investments that are born to lose.

It is common for economists to offer a forecast for the stock market yet add a caveat to the effect that "If a war shock or terrorist attack occurs, then I would have to modify my outlook." As such, it would seem logical to assume that...they must have access to a study showing that such events affect the stock market, right? The answer is no, for the same reason that they do not check relationships between interest rates, oil prices or the trade balance and the stock market. The causality just seems too sensible to doubt.

The belief that earnings drive stock prices powers the bulk of the research on Wall Street but this glaring exception to the idea of a causal relationship between corporate earnings and stock prices challenges that theory. Let me explain.

Whenever oil prices make a big move in either direction, there are some fairly standard arguments made of its effect on the overall stock market but, rarely, is any actual evidence presented to substantiate these more or less intuitive arguments. Let’s take a look at the data and see what the historical relationship has actually been between oil and the stock market.

Large numbers of people believe that an economic crash is coming next year based on a 7-year cycle of economic crashes that goes all the way back to the Great Depression. Such a premise is very controversial - some of you will love it, and some of you will think that it is utter rubbish - so I just present the bare bone facts below for you decide for yourself if it is something to seriously consider protecting yourself from in 2015.

No stock market crash (a decline greater than 15%) has occurred over the past 30 years without the presence of a Hindenburg Omen except on one occasion (the mini-crash of July/August 2011). As such, without an official confirmed Hindenburg Omen, we are pretty safe from experiencing a major stock market correction. On the other hand, if we have an official Hindenburg Omen, then a critical set of market conditions necessary for a stock market crash exists. As of September 19th, 2014, we have such a condition in the market...

The S&P 500 just extended its winning streak to seven straight quarters, and it's reasonable to wonder just how long it can continue...[That being said, however,] investors often enjoy a strong wind at their back in the fourth quarter, based on seasonal patterns and stock market history. Will 2014 be different [or will, as history suggests,] investors find a shiny new quarter during the next three months? [This article looks at these patterns to come to a better understanding of how the markets likely will perform for the balance of 2014.]

Statistically speaking there is an optimal time to buy or sell a security and knowing such, or at least knowing when not to do so, would be quite beneficial to your financial health. This article provides the answers as to what are the best months, and work its way down to half-hours of the trading day, to engage in trading.

In the investment management process...[it is important to] actively monitor both short- and long-term cycles...in order to manage expectations based on historical patterns...[as well as] oscillators - diagnostic tools that help us measure a security’s upward and downward price volatility - but to understand how oscillators work, though, you first need to become familiar with standard deviation and mean reversion. In this article, we do just that.