Stock Indices

The idea is to create the mother or grandfather of all bubbles. When the masses decide to speculate there will be so much money flowing into the markets that all assets including gold will fly; some will soar to the moon, some to the sun and some possibly to the next galaxy.

Those who are ignorant of financial history are doomed again to suffer its dreadful and costly consequences and today’s death crosses as seen in 7 major stock market indices are US stock market sell signals. Take note.

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Discussing the Death Cross in a sensationalistic context is sexy and makes for good financial pornography and conversation over cocktails but that's about all. Here's why.

The better an investor can identify the phases of a market cycle, the more profits can be made on the ride upwards of a buying opportunity.

Since the beginning of the year, Canadian equities have been on a (relative) tear, outpacing most developed and emerging market equities in Canadian dollar terms but this recent brush with greatness begs the question: Is this year’s success the beginning of a long-term trend or a brief flash in the pan?

We see a wider gap between the prospective returns for safe-haven and risk assets, reflected in higher expected returns for equities versus bonds and for non-U.S. equities versus U.S. equities.

The fact that margin debt is now in a downtrend and its relatively massive size suggests returns over the next three years will be very poor. In other words, based solely on this one measure, buying stocks today presents investors with a great deal of risk for very little potential reward.

Margin debt right now is sending a very clear signal that investors have recently become very greedy suggesting that a new bear market is likely underway which could culminate in a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 and, because of the sheer size of the potential forced supply that could come to market in this sort of environment, could easily be just the beginning.

The bull market from early 2009 into May 2015 looks just like every bubble in history. It follows the Masters and Johnson chart for the male orgasm – there’s a rise, a climax, and a sharp fall!