Stock Indices

I don't doubt that the S&P 500 will rise to 5,000 - someday - but it just isn't likely to be this year or next. Let's logically think about this and just where the two keys to market would need to be for 5,000 to be realistic, which are earnings and the PE.

I believe that we are at the end of a very major economic cycle. Not only are markets insane, but so are deficits, debts and currency debasements but also moral and ethical values have now vanished into thin air and been replaced by lies, deceit and the golden calf. We are now in a very critical period for the world since excesses of the magnitude we are now seeing must be corrected... and the corrections will be of a similar magnitude to the rise but happen much quicker. We are talking about falls of 90% or more in all major asset and debt markets. [Let me explain.]

Now is the time for investors to seek out information on how to identify the tell-tale signs of bear markets and how to profit from them, rather than being decimated by them.

We should see a correction of about 10% materialize over the next several weeks (September/October). Here's why.

Now that stimulus is poised to start being reduced we can expect a choppy stock market to emerge imminently, if it hasn't already. Here's about where we stand now.

Among all the bubbles in history, including the 1929 bubble, the late-1960’s Go-Go bubble, the early 1970’s Nifty-Fifty mania, the late-1990’s tech bubble, and the 2007 mortgage bubble that preceded the global financial crisis, none has so thoroughly nurtured the illusion that extended losses are impossible than the bubble we find ourselves in today.

The stock market bubble continues to inflate, while the price of silver remains range-bound but a reversal in those two asset classes is coming, and based on history it could be one for the record books. In fact, you might want to refrain from sipping hot coffee while viewing the tables below.

Currently, investors believe “this time IS different”  but “this time” is different only because the variables are different. The variables always are, but outcomes are always the same. The increase in speculative risks, combined with excess leverage, leaves the market vulnerable to a sizable correction.

The Buffett Yardstick is ~ 50% higher than its peak set in 2000. What does that portend for the stock market investors going forward?

The stock market performs poorly when the ratio declines and does well when it advances so what is the GPR currently saying about the future of the stock market?