Stock Indices

You can call this current stock market a blowoff or call it a Wile E. Coyote moment or call it a divergence or call it a disconnect or call it a lapse of judgement. You can call it whatever you want but I call it the “Honey Badger” market because this is one “crazy, nastyass” stock market - and I can’t believe I’m watching it happen all over again.

The average U.S. stock is DOWN over 1% thus far in 2014. How can that be when we’re being told almost daily that the Dow and S&P 500 are hitting new all-time highs? The answer is likely to surprise you.

The current U.S. equity market has something for everyone. Whether you are bullish or bearish, there is no shortage of indicators or charts you can use to support your thesis.

Greed may have been good for Gordon Gekko. but in the investment world it rarely is. As Warren Buffett is famous for saying "...be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” [and now is such a time]...to start showing some level of fear here in the face of extreme greed by the crowd. The crowd can be right for a long time, but they are rarely right at extremes. While this time may be different, the probabilities suggest that at the very least it will be a more difficult environment for equities going forward.

The best way to understand how the stock market fluctuates is to study trends of individual stocks and broad market behaviors. I’ve created this infographic to help you do just that.

Where do we go from here? The trend is up in the broad markets (above 200MA and Advance/Decline line is at all-time highs) and the S&P 500 is on the verge of a breaking through resistance at 1929. Why 1929? What would it mean if it did?

If you want to make money long-term, you have to bet against the prevailing consensus of most financial experts. I have never seen such an overwhelming bullish consensus as there is today that the economy is going to do great, that gold is a sell, and that the stock market is going to go higher, and if you want to build speculative wealth, you have to bet against that.

Are we in the third phase of a bull market? Most who will read this article will immediately say “no” but isn’t that what was always believed during the “mania” phase of every previous bull market cycle? With the current bull market now stretching into its sixth year; it seems appropriate to review the three very distinct phases of historical bull market cycles.

Are we near the end of one of history's great stock market rallies? I don't think so. Yes, prices are in the upper half of their long-term trends, but it's not what you might call "scary-overvalued." There is still plenty of room on the upside before historical precedents are violated. Let me explain further.

I’d argue that the record low volume shows investors aren’t looking ahead as much as looking behind and reminiscing at how good things have been over the past five years or so. They’re expecting more of the same even though it’s mathematically impossible people.