Stock Indices

The pullback I’ve been warning you about in the U.S. equity markets is finally at hand but, once this pullback in the broad stock indices is over, the Dow Jones Industrial will lead the way higher yet again, and catapult to 31,000 over the next three years, with gold reaching $5,000, silver $125 and select individual stocks in the mining sector spinning off gains of 2,000%, 3,000% and even more. No, I'm not out of my mind. Quite to the contrary, I believe I am the one analyst who really understands the forces that are building to enable such to occur. Read on to learn about my enviable track record over the years and specifically why such gains will be realized over the next three years.

While the majority is looking at the Megaphone Pattern correction since the 2000 high and is expecting the market to go back to the lower trend line of this pattern and to make new lows, I think that it will not happen. The opinion of the majority can be used as a contrarian indicator. I think that a healthy correction in this new Secular Bull Market could push the Dow Jones to 12500-13500 (end of 2015 – half 2016) followed by a second leg up of this new Secular Bull Market.

The U.S. stock market has been closing at one record high after another but, despite the seemingly unending investor optimism more than five years into the current bull market, some worrisome issues are continuing to build under the surface. Like all past bull markets, the latest episode will eventually come to an end and a new bear market will begin and it has the potential to be even worse than the two previous downturns since the start of the new millennium...

We estimate that a 'fair price' for the market is a Shiller PE of around 16. With the market at close to a Shiller PE of 26, the market is overvalued by about 60%. Now is not a historically good time to initiate a position in the S&P500.

As Warren Buffett is famous for saying "...be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” and now is such a time. The crowd can be right for a long time, but they are rarely right at extremes and, while this time may be different, the probabilities suggest that at the very least it will be a more difficult environment for equities going forward.

The 4 fundamentals and technicals discussed in this article accurately called stock market crashes in 2000 and 2007 and these same market metrics are again TODAY warning that a possible financial tsunami is brewing on the horizon. No one knows for certain WHEN the tsunami will hit Wall Street...but, without question, today’s stocks exhibit extremely exaggerated valuations, and extremes never last, so make no mistake, a major stock sell-off looms.

The S&P 500 is now up over 180% since troughing in March 2009 and it has been almost 3 years since the stock market experienced a 10% correction. Historically, market corrections happen approximately every 2 years on average. [As such,] we think that this rally is getting very long in the tooth and we wouldn't be surprised if we have a healthy pullback in the coming weeks or months.

...For US stocks — and by implication most other equity markets — the danger signals are piling up to the point where a case can be made that the end is, at last, near. Take a look at these examples of indicators that should scare the hell out of anyone with a big stock portfolio.

You can call this current stock market a blowoff or call it a Wile E. Coyote moment or call it a divergence or call it a disconnect or call it a lapse of judgement. You can call it whatever you want but I call it the “Honey Badger” market because this is one “crazy, nastyass” stock market - and I can’t believe I’m watching it happen all over again.

The average U.S. stock is DOWN over 1% thus far in 2014. How can that be when we’re being told almost daily that the Dow and S&P 500 are hitting new all-time highs? The answer is likely to surprise you.