Economy

A recession is the scariest creature in the average investor's closet of anxieties...because they can mean lower home prices, lower stock prices and, of course, higher unemployment [but] if you're prepared for the next one, there will be plenty of opportunities when that downturn ends. [That being said,] the more you know about recessions, the better, so here are 8 must-know facts about them.

What I outline below is not a forecast but a potential scenario which I sincerely hope won’t come to pass but the risk of going down the road to political and financial system collapse, social unrest and even civil war, and eventual hyperinflation, is certainly there.

The illusion that the global economy could effortlessly add trillions in debt to fund living large forever was based on a brief historical anomaly of zero interest rates enabled by low inflation that was never sustainable and the eventual consequences on supply, demand, risk and price discovery are finally visible.

The Fed rate hikes will bring an end to inflation quickly and even bring about some deflation and they will quickly reverse their actions and, by that time, the market will be 25% to 50% higher.

The US dollar has been on a major surge against major global currencies in the past year, recently hitting levels not seen in 20 years and, as the world’s reserve currency, such changes in its value have implications for the entire global economy. Below are five of the main ones.

The U.S. has the highest inflation in 40 years, and yet it also has the strongest dollar in 20 years. How can that be? How can the dollar be so weak and yet be so strong at the exact same time? [This article] tries to make sense of this tale of two dollars.

Interest rates are rising to cool inflation and remove home buyer stimulus kicking off a global real estate correction.

There is no easy solution. There is no possible painless normalization path. Powell will have to choose between the risk of a global financial meltdown or prolonged inflation.

It is commonly said that the Fed needs to tighten to fight inflation, which will make things good again once it gets inflation under control. I believe this is both naïve and inconsistent with how the economic machine works. Here's why.

Between soaring inflation, falling wages, slowing economic growth, and a Fed bent on tightening monetary policy, there is a storm on the horizon. The magnitude, timing, and location of the “economic hurricane” are still anyone’s best guess.