Economy

The world seems to be entering a new period of stagflation similar to the 1970s - high inflation and low GDP growth - but expect this to be continually denied by mainstream news sources. Words: 633

If you're inclined to sit on the fence these days in the delicate art of anticipating the next phase of the business cycle, you'll get no argument from the latest update on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a monster index of indexes that encompasses 85 measures of U.S. economic activity. This benchmark has weakened this year but it's still not flashing a formal prediction of economic contraction...[Let me explain.] Words: 255

By now nobody should have any doubts as to just how disturbing America's fiscal debacle is. For those naive and innocent few who still think there is a Hollywood ending with a pot of gold awaiting everyone at the end of the rainbow, we present the following "10 essential fiscal charts" from the Pew Policy Institute.

Economic inflection points are seldom obvious but if we take the time to analyze all the data, there are at least five indicators that suggest another U.S. recession is not imminent. [Take a look.] Words: 920

Sorry. I don't make the news. I just report it and I continue to believe the risks [facing the world] are so serious that...this is what will happen next. Soon Greece will default...[and] this will begin a chain reaction of [events leading to... I lay it all out in this short article and I think you will agree that it makes absolute sense.] Words: 912

It is widely accepted that Greece is insolvent even though the higher echelons of euro-zone politics still hesitate to use the term, and default swap prices...give virtually 100% odds that Greece will default. The handling of the issue has heightened the perception of risk for other problem countries of the euro zone...such that investors now give 60% odds of default by Portugal...and 30%-plus odds for default by Italy... Even France, with its S&P AAA rating, is now rated more likely to default than Brazil! [In addition, the U.S. is facing the liklihood of a fiscal policy impasse in Congress that could well lead to a recession. As such, as we see it, the risk of contagion in the financial system around the world has risen dramatically. We substantiate our contentions below.] Words:1612

Harvard Professor/Economic Historian Niall Ferguson wrote recently that he is of the opinion that, while all the fiscal and monetary government stimuli undertaken by many of the governments of the world's developed countries since 2007 may have averted a second Great Depression, they will, most likely, still experience a "slight" depression. Campbell reviews the rationale behind Ferguson's position and then presents his view that, as he sees it, most developed countries will face, instead, "a form of" Stagflation where the prices of non-durable goods (food, energy, and basic consumables) inflate, but the price of durable goods (long-term assets such as houses, cars, refrigerators, etc.) deflate. Campbell's commentary makes for a very thought-provoking read. Words: 922

Europe is on the verge of a collapse, and unless something gets done relatively soon, (perhaps as soon as the next few weeks), Europe is likely to experience their own 2008 scenario. The U.S. and Chinese economies are heavily dependent on exporting goods to Europe, and with Eurozone growth slowing as a result of the potential default in Greece, and then on to the rest of the PIIGS, a "Great Depression-like scenario" could very well play out. [In fact,] George Soros thinks we are headed towards another Great Depression and, you know what, he's right! What do you think? Is George Soros right? Are we headed for another depression? Words: 530

For decades, the governments of the western world have been warned that they were getting into way too much debt. For decades, the major banks and the big financial institutions were warned that they were becoming way too leveraged and were taking far too many risks. Well, nobody listened so now we get to watch a global financial nightmare play out in slow motion. Grab some popcorn and get ready. It is going to be quite a show. [Let me explain.] Words: 1075

The Age of Austerity has arrived with a vengeance in U.S. cities. City budgets shrank 1.9% in 2011 after 4.4% declines in 2010 and city revenues declined 2.3% this year for the fifth straight year of declines, according to the annual report from the National League of Cities. While tax revenue and state and federal aid decline, costs are increasing including pensions and health care. Cities have responded with layoffs, hiring freezes, pay cuts and service cuts. [A picture is worth a 1000 words so here are 11 charts that show just how bad the situation really is.] Words: 333