Economy

Why read: It is foolish not to consider the possibility of depression, particularly in the face of the preponderance of commentary over the past many months that rampant inflation is on the horizon. [Here I review, analyze and comment on one such article on that possibility.] Words: 697

Americans, don't think for one moment that the crises in Europe are irrelevant! This past April the U.S had the largest monthly decline in exports to Europe in the past 7.5 years and this trend will only get worse - much worse - as the crises spread and linger. Exports to Europe are now down 2.7% from April 2011, the first yearly decline since February 2010. The chart below says it all.

I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher....Let's take a look at why. >Michael "Mish" Shedlock< (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com) Words: 530

"The entire financial system is in collapse. It’s not about the Greeks, Spanish, Italians, English, Americans, the Chinese, it’s about everybody. That’s what we’re looking at, and...I believe a tidal wave entrance into gold will happen when there’s a real collapse and catastrophe that they can’t paper over anymore. When does the crash point happen? No one can tell, but all of the cards are in place for the house of cards to collapse.”

"Ben Bernanke is trying like mad to stimulate credit and lending but to no avail. It's an uphill battle because of demographics, student debt, and lack of jobs. [Frankly however, given such an environment,] prospects for family formation are fundamentally very weak and overall economic fundamentals are very weak as well" [and that certainly does not bode well for housing coming back anytime soon. Let me explain.] >Michael "Mish" Shedlock< (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com)Words: 650

"The most important issue in this year's election is the economy. Unfortunately, this topic has now been "politicized," which means that you can't talk about it without being instantly cheered or jeered by fans of each respective political team...[the truth of the matter, however, is that] the economy is much more important than this year's election or either political team....The first step is getting past the political blame-game and understanding what's wrong.... Let's go to the charts."

The global market turmoil in the European Union with Greece, Spain and Italy and the slowing growth in China and other Asian markets has been monopolizing the headlines lately....You could very well have the attitude that it doesn't directly affect you. Like it or not, however, the United States is tied to other economies....and, since the financial markets facilitate trade and business all over the world, problems in other countries can severely impact your investments, your job and even how much you pay for everyday items. Therefore, you cannot afford to ignore the health or strength of other countries' financial systems and their banks. [Let's take a look.] Gene Kirsch > www.moneyandmarkets.com

It’s incredible that the Mayans forecast 2012 would be the end of a major era. It looks, today, like we are standing on the eve of massive changes in the world that will have consequences for a long, long time to come. The scene is already set....the euro will collapse, and...other major currencies will collapse. The consequences of these (eventual) collapses will be horrible because we will have a hyperinflationary depression.

We’re coming to the end of government’s ability to borrow money to fund current spending that’s beyond the growth of their economy....and I actually find that massively bullish because that government funding misallocates capital. It’s going to end in the next 2 or 3 years, Europe first, then Japan, then the US....

Everyone who purchases a Treasury bond is purchasing a depreciating asset. Moreover, the capital risk of investing in Treasuries is very high. The low interest rate means that the price paid for the bond is very high. A rise in interest rates, which must come sooner or later, will collapse the price of the bonds and inflict capital losses on bond holders, both domestic and foreign. The question is: when is sooner or later? The purpose of this article is to examine that question. Words: 2600