In a note to clients, BofA rates strategists Priya Misra and Shyam Rajan say the Fed is “waiting for the triple threat” – three key triggers that must be met before the Fed does any additional easing. They are…
So says Matthew Boesler (www.businessinsider.com) in edited excerpts from his original post*.
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) has edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Boesler goes on to say, in part:
Misra and Rajan list the triple threat as being:
1. Declining inflation expectations:
One of the key justifications of prior QE programs by the Fed was to counter deflationary threats and raise inflation expectations. This time inflation expectations have been broadly stable and far from prior lows that were met by Fed actions. While we do not expect the Fed to wait for deflation concerns to pick up, we believe a continued decline in inflation expectations would be necessary before the Fed embarks on further action.
2. Tightening financial conditions:
One measure repeatedly pointed out by Chairman Bernanke is financial conditions. Even at the June press conference, Bernanke pointed out that central banks could help create more accommodative financial conditions and that, “monetary policy still does have some capacity to strengthen the economy by easing financial conditions.” Financial conditions as represented by the Bloomberg Financial conditions index are far from QE1 or QE2 levels. We would closely monitor these conditions as we view them as an important trigger for Fed action.
3. Risky asset underperformance:
While the Fed maintains that it does not react to movements in the stock markets, recent evidence indicates otherwise. Of course, this could be due to an indirect effect of a decline in the stock market adversely affecting inflation expectations and/or financial conditions…changes in the stock market influence financial conditions, making stocks an important trigger to monitor.
What’s next, according to BofA, is that “the market likely will focus on the triggers that might catalyze central banks into action.”
They think the conditions will be met by September.
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*http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-the-fed-is-done-easing-until-the-triple-threat-emerges-2012-8#ixzz22ozEfBHQ (To access the above article please copy the URL and paste it into your browser.)
Editor’s Note: The above posts may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…), and reformatted (including the title, some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The article’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article.
If you are angry about LIBOR – angry that 18 banks can set one of the world’s most important interest rates in such a poorly supervised, ill-understood manner – you should be even angrier that just 12 people sitting in a room can set the world’s single most important interest rate to suit the needs of the stock market, all under the pretence of controlling inflation? Let me explain. Words: 810
“… those who are waiting for the Fed cavalry to ride over the hill and rescue the economy are doomed to disappointment….The banks are awash in loanable funds, businesses are cash-rich and opportunity-poor, and interest rates are already so low that lower still will not attract borrowing….More liquidity is unlikely to impart more impetus to the sluggish economy…. Congress and the President should not count on the Fed to bail them out of their mistakes…. Central banks are unable to help in the face of persistently flawed economic policies.”
By threatening to drop money out of helicopters to fight deflation – to leave a paperweight on the “print” button if you will – Bernanke convinced the market and all of Wall Street that the Fed would always be there to step in and save the day. [In fact, however,] the whole thing was a bluff meant to prop up the markets – the famed Bernanke Put – and it was a lie. The markets will be realizing this in the coming months, if not sooner, and when they do, we’ll see the REAL Collapse: the one to which 2008 was just a warm-up. [Let me explain.] Words: 444
At the risk of looking/sounding like some crazed religious fanatic usually seen carrying a sign or proclaiming: “Repent, the end is near,” I shall avoid the word “repent”. To me, the rest of that proclamation appears accurate and reasonable, at least with regard to our economic condition. [Let me explain:] Words: 1896
Our civilization would not be able to handle such a transition from an expansionary credit based economy where goods and services were readily available into a paradigm of credit contraction, supply shortages and destitution and this is what is coming. There is no way to prevent it – only to defer it until a later date – and that day will soon be upon us. Words: 590
Evidence shows that the U.S. money supply trend is in the early stages of hyperbolic growth coupled with a similar move in the price of gold. All sign point to a further escalation of money-printing in 2012…followed by unexpected and accelerating price inflation, followed by a rise in nominal interest rates that will bring a sovereign debt crisis for the U. S. dollar with it as the cost of borrowing for the government escalates…[Let me show you the evidence.] Words: 660
With the U.S. election just months off, political pressures will mount to favor fiscal stimulus measures instead of restraint. Such action can only accelerate higher domestic inflation and intensified dollar debasement culminating in a Great Collapse – a hyperinflationary great depression – by 2014. [Let me explain why that is the inevitable outcome.] Words: 2766
The deficits aren’t going to stop anytime soon. The debt mountain will keep growing…Obviously, the debt can’t keep growing faster than the economy forever, but the people in charge do seem determined to find out just how far they can push things….The only way for the politicians to buy time will be through price inflation, to reduce the real burden of the debt, and whether they admit it or not, inflation is what they will be praying for….[and] the Federal Reserve will hear their prayer. When will the economy reach the wall toward which it is headed? Not soon, I believe, but in the meantime there will be plenty of excitement. [Let me explain what I expect to unfold.] Words: 1833
This short video – on the unsustainability of government spending – should be watched by everyone, including those not yet old enough to vote. It should be shown in every high school and college classroom. Anyone that cannot understand this presentation should not be allowed out without a guardian.