munKNEE.com Your Key to Making Money
There are many indicators available that provide information on stock and index movement to help you time the market and make money. Market strength and volatility are two such categories of indicators and a description of six of them are described in this “cut and save” article. Read on! Words: 974
By: Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!).
There are over 80 indicators in all divided into 6 categories (trend, momentum, volatility, market strength, support/resistance and cycle). That being said some are very technical, some are infrequently used and some are more effective than others. The most popular indicators, and also available for use free at online charting service such as stockcharts.com and/or bigcharts.com, are those regarding:
- market trends (read an article on these indicators here)
- market momentum (go here) and
- market strength and volatility
This article deals with the Market Strength and Volatility Indicators as follows:
A. Market Strength Indicators
1. On Balance Volume (OBV) – focuses on the importance of volume and how it can affect a given price and the security’s momentum, the premise being that volume precedes price movements.
It works this way:
- If volume is decreasing when the price of a security is rising then it is a sign of increased selling pressure, which if continued, will send the price of the security lower.
- The opposite is true with increasing volume on up days, which is a sign of buying pressure.
- If the OBV is moving in the same direction as the existing trend, it is a signal that the strength of the trend remains.
- A 20-day moving average of the OBV is often added and when the OBV crosses the 20ma the divergence signal of a trend reversal is confirmed.
2. Accumulation/Distribution – attempts to gauge supply and demand by determining whether investors are generally “accumulating” (buying) or “distributing” (selling) a certain security by identifying divergences between the security price and volume flow.
In practice, this indicator is used to find situations in which the indicator is heading in the opposite direction as the price. Once this divergence has been identified, the trader will wait to confirm the reversal and makes his/her transaction decisions using other technical indicators discussed here.
3. Chaikin A/D Oscillator – monitors the flow of money in and out of the market by plotting the difference between the 10-day exponential moving average and the 3-period exponential moving average of the Accumulation/Distribution. This simply compares the money flow to the price action of a security which, in turn, allows the chartist to recognize tops and bottoms in short cycles.
It is suggested that the Chaikin Oscillator be implemented in conjunction with a 21-day envelope based on the price of the security. Price envelopes are plotted at a set percentage above and below a moving average to indicate overbought and oversold levels.
4. Money Flow Index (MFI) – used to measure the strength of money going in to and out of a security and, as such, can be used to predict a trend reversal.
It is similar to the RSI but accounts for volume whereas the RSI only incorporates price. The MFI is range-bound between 0 and 100 and is interpreted in a similar fashion to the RSI.
5. Price by Volume (PBV) – the standard volume histogram re-applied to price instead of time so, instead of being able to determine when a stock is going in and out of favour (indicated by increasing volume levels over time), PBV enables you to determine the level of buying or selling interest at a given price level.
Volume strength (as shown by the horizontal length of the PBV histogram and indicating the amount of shares that traded at the given price level) and volume type (as shown by the two different colours seen on each bar and referring to the number of shares sold compared to the number of shares bought) allow you to determine the strength of a particular price level. Once you have this information you can combine it with trend lines and other indicators to determine support and resistance levels.
B. Volatility Indicators
Bollinger Bands – a band plotted two standard deviations away from a 21-day simple moving average.
Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, Bollinger bands adjust themselves to the market conditions. When the market becomes more volatile the bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods the bands contract (move closer to the average). The tightening of the bands is often used by technical traders as an early indication that the volatility is about to increase sharply. The closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.
Conclusion
There you have it – an extensive and in-depth assessment of how to evaluate buy/sell decisions for any security using the 5 market strength indicators and the most frequently used volatility indicator.
If ever there was a “cut and save” investment advisory this article is it!
Related Articles:
1. What Does a “Troy” Ounce of Gold Mean? What Does 18 or 24 “Karat” Gold Mean?
When the price of gold is mentioned as costing “x dollars per troy ounce” do you fully appreciate the significance of the term “troy”? When looking to buy gold jewellery do you fully understand what the difference is between an item that is 10 “karat” gold and another item stamped 18 “karat” gold (other than that it is much more expensive)? Let me explain. Words: 587
2. Insider Selling: A VERY Unreliable Market Indicator – Here’s Proof
In the last week, the Dow hit an all-time high yet the ratio of the number of shares that corporate insiders sold to the number they bought almost hit 10 to 1 – the fastest pace in over a decade according to Vickers Weekly Insider Report. That must be a sign that a turn in the market is imminent, right or, at the very least, that company executives don’t feel optimistic about the economic outlook? WRONG!
3. Gold:Silver Ratio Suggests Much Higher Future Price for Silver – MUCH Higher!
The majority of analysts maintain that gold will reach a parabolic peak price somewhere in excess of $5,000 per troy ounce in the next few years. Given the fact that the historical movement of silver is 90 – 95% correlated with that of gold suggests that a much higher price for silver can also be anticipated. Couple that with the fact that silver is currently greatly undervalued relative to its average long-term historical relationship with gold and it is realistic to expect that silver will eventually escalate dramatically in price. How much? This article applies the historical gold:silver ratios to come up with a range of prices based on specific price levels for gold being reached. Words: 691
4. “Graham Stocks” Dramatically Outperform the S&P 500 – Why Invest Any Other Way?
My portfolio version of Benjamin Graham’s time- tested strategy for defensive investors has has only trailed the markets in 3 of the last 12 years and has dramatically outperformed the S&P 500 during that period realizing a 19% (annualized) return vs. only 2% (annualized) for the S&P 500. Let’s take a look at the method and this year’s group of Graham stocks. Words: 790
5. Value Investing: The Practical Application of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett’s Principles
While the average amateur investor may be excellent in their own career field, it doesn’t mean they know what to invest in, or how to pick stocks. In fact being very good at your field can give you the false sense that whatever stocks you pick or your broker picks for you must be good, because after all, you picked them and you picked your broker — and you’re smart so, no doubt, those stock prices will go up. Unfortunately, the smart and talented stock-picking neophyte is not investing at all but speculating. Words: 924
6. Attn. Financial Advisors: How Much Asset Class Diversification Is Really Necessary?
[No one would argue that] diversification is not a sound investment practice but exactly how much risk reduction, in actual numbers, is obtained through application of this philosophy? This analysis is an attempt to quantitatively determine its relevance – [and you will be surprised by the answer. Read on!] Words: 1317
7. Follow Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules of Investing – or Suffer the Consequences
Individuals are long-term investors only as long as the markets are rising. Despite endless warnings, repeated suggestions and outright recommendations – getting investors to sell, take profits and manage…[their] portfolio risks is nearly a lost cause as long as the markets are rising. Unfortunately, by the time the fear, desperation or panic stages are reached it is far too late to act and I will only be able to say that I warned you [- unless you take the time to read, and study the contents of this article]. Words: 1945; Charts: 10; Tables: 1
8. THE 10 Most Dangerous Investing Mistakes
Protect your money by steering clear of these 10 most dangerous investing mistakes. Words: 716
9. Apply the Bell Curve to Your Portfolio Asset Diversification – Here’s Why
80% of my investable income is in cash, precious metals and a small number of stocks. That might seem crazy, but the Pareto Principle, Zipf’s Law and the bell curve have convinced me that it’s a waste of time and money to get any more diversified. [Let me explain why that is the case.] Words: 396
10. What You Should Know About the “Dogs of the Dow” Investment Strategy
The “Dogs of the Dow” is a simple and effective strategy that has outperformed the Dow over the last 50 years and generates almost 4% in yield. Here’s how it works. Words: 486
11. Asset Allocation: How Sound is the Foundation of Your Portfolio Pyramid?
Regardless of the size of your financial pyramid, without a core-holding foundation, you are building it on sand. Core holdings are for protection, not for profit. They function as insurance against a catastrophe. [Let me explain.] Words: 754
12. Outliers Happen All Too Frequently So Get Prepared! Here’s How
By definition, rare events should seldom occur [and] applying that understanding to financial markets assumes that all market events follow a normal distribution or, in layman’s terms, a bell-shaped curve. More specifically, the statistics say that 99.7% of all daily movements should fall within three standard deviations of the mean, no more. Well, guess what? New research suggests that they clearly don’t follow such a pattern – that “unlikely” doesn’t mean “never”. [Let me expand on that.] Words: 1079; Charts: 1
13. Portfolio “Diversification” Can Kill Your Portfolio Returns – Here’s Why
Most investors don’t know anything more about diversification than you “shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket” [but] spending some time trying to understand the ways you might be shooting yourself in the foot could seriously enhance your portfolio returns and stop catastrophic risk. [There are some advantages to diversification if you REALLY know what you are doing but the shortcomings can go a long way towards killing your portfolio returns. In this article we identify what they are and how best to avoid them.] Words: 1055
14. Warren Buffett: Diversification is Nothing More Than Protection Against Ignorance
NOT putting all your eggs in one basket makes intuitive sense to many investors. Indeed, evidence indicates that putting more eggs in your basket may actually crack your portfolio, not protect it. Words: 515
15. Your Portfolio Isn’t Adequately Diversified Without 7-15% in Precious Metals – Here’s Why
The traditional view of portfolio management is that three asset classes, stocks, bonds and cash, are sufficient to achieve diversification. This view is, quite simply, wrong because over the past 10 years gold, silver and platinum have singularly outperformed virtually all major widely accepted investment indexes. Precious metals should be considered an independent asset class and an allocation to precious metals, as the most uncorrelated asset group, is essential for proper portfolio diversification. [Let me explain.] Words: 2137
16. Recognize These 7 Emotions Before You Buy or Sell an Investment
Since there is such a wide range of emotions, it might be helpful for you to do a ‘gut-check’ before you actually buy or sell any type of security. Knowing how you “feel” about investing might turn out to be just as important as knowing what you “know.” Words: 737
One of the hardest things for individual investors to do is to know when to sell a stock. Many times, you might sell simply because a stock has gone up and you’ve made some money. More often than not, though, this is not a great reason to sell [because, as mentioned in the title of this article,] you will never – ever – have a 10-bagger if you sell a stock after a 2-bagger. That being said, what things should one consider before selling? Words: 912
18. 10 Timeless Investment Rules to Survive This Stormy Stock Market
Rules may be meant to be broken, but with investing ignoring the rules can break you – especially now. Investment rules are tailor-made for tough times, allowing you to stick to a plan just when you need it most. Indeed, a rule book is important in any market climate, but it tends to get tossed when stocks are soaring. That’s why sage investors warn people not to confuse a bull market with brains. Here are 10 rules to survive this stormy stock market. Words: 769
19. Don’t Invest in the Stock Market Without Heeding These “Rules of Trading”
I’m not going to candy coat it for you: making serious money in the stock market is a ton of hard work. It takes patience, savvy, and a certain level of market smarts – and the cold, hard truth is that if you don’t have them, the big boys will drain your portfolio dry. Unfortunately, those are the three areas that most retail investors need to work on the most. Otherwise, they will simply end up in a cat-and-mouse game where they are the mice. Don’t fool yourself for one second into believing that your “due diligence” can be done by watching a show or two on CNBC. It just doesn’t work that way but if there is one voice from the markets that should grab your attention every time you hear it, it belongs to Dennis Gartman, founder and author of The Gartman Letter. He’s sort of a guru’s guru. [Here is] a glimpse into how he views and trades the markets. Words: 106
20. Investor Fear Gauge: What Everyone Should Know About VIX
VIX is the ticker symbol for the volatility index that the Chicago Board Options Exchange created to calculate the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500 index for the next 30 calendar days. The formal name of the VIX is the CBOE Volatility Index [and informally as the investor fear guage]. Below is some introductory material on the VIX offered up in a question and answer format: Words: 915
21. Conventional Stock Market Investing Advice Is Rooted in Myth! Here Are the Facts
The conventional stock market investing advice is rooted in myth – rooted in a false understanding of what the historical stock-return data says about investing for the long-term….Set forth below are five reasons why I believe that the conventional stock market investing advice must soon change. Words: 2067
22. Be Careful! Former Investment “Rules” Nolonger Work – Here’s Why
Investment “rules” that were relevant for a century are obsolete. They were based on a world where economies grew, people’s standard of living increased and outcomes tomorrow better than today. Arguably each of these conditions will not hold in the future but if they don’t, neither do the rules of thumb that guided investing last century. These guiding principles developed and worked in a world that that no longer exists but applying them in the future will result in devastating financial outcomes. [Let me explain.] Words: 1261
23. 12 Books that EVERY Financial Advisor – and Investor – Should Read
Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, believes the following books are essential financial reading. Enjoy the summer! Words: 235
24. Portfolio Down? Apply These Wise Sayings to Successfully Rebuild It
When the stock market reaches extreme levels of distress, the average investor – particularly those who have done their own research and made their own investment decisions – panic at seeing their savings diminish to such an extent. They often start questioning whether they should be making their own decisions and often their reaction is to salvage what is left and sell, sell, and sell some more. [Regretfully, that is not what one should do. Let me explain why that is the case and what you should be doing – NOW.] Words: 380
25. Words of Wisdom From the Most Brilliant Investors Ever
There’s a bewildering amount of advice on how to invest…so it’s worthwhile, especially in today’s volatile markets, to take a look at what has actually worked, as opposed to what people claim works. We’ve collected some of the finest wisdom on markets from the most respected and successful investors, past and present. Words: 865
26. Understanding Systematic Risk, Modern Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Frontier
Risk inherent to the entire market or market segment is referred to as systematic risk and modern portfolio theory says that a blend of investments has the potential to increase overall return for a given level of risk, and/or decrease risk for a given return that the investor is trying to achieve. The expected risk/return relationship is known as the efficient frontier. [If you have a portfolio of investments then you need to fully understand what all this really means and how you can apply it to your portfolio makeup to enhance returns under any circumstances. Let me do just that.] Words: 1325
27. Should Stocks Be the Cornerstone of Your Portfolio?
There is a common notion that stocks, at least if held for a long-time, outperform other assets [and, as such,] should be the cornerstone of any long-term portfolio. [While that is indeed true,] it is best to focus first on how much you are able and willing to lose (i.e. what risk you are able and willing to bear) when determining the optimal allocation for your portfolio. [Only] then [should you] think about what potential investment returns you might be able to capture. [Let me explain.] Words: 1503
28. Motivated Stock Pickers CAN Beat the Market! Here’s How
What hope can there be for motivated stock pickers – no matter how much they sweat and toil – to outperform the low-cost index funds that simply mechanically track the market? Well – in spite of the absurd rise of the Nobel-acclaimed, and highly promoted, Efficient Market Hypothesis that claims that individual investors can’t beat the market – it turns out there is plenty! Just ask Warren Buffett, for one. [Let me explain.] Words: 1574
29. Don’t Be Misled – There are Major Differences Between the HUI, XAU & GDX
The number, market cap and currencies of the constituents of the HUI, XAU, GDX, XGD and CDNX indices differ considerably from each other and, as such, each index presents a different picture of what is really happening in the precious metals marketplace. This article analyzes the make-up of each index to reveal the biases of each to arrive at the answer to the question in the title. Words: 1026
30. Don’t Invest in the Stock Market Without Reading This Article First
History has shown that investors who stick to disciplined, fundamental-focused strategies give themselves a good chance of beating the market over the long haul and James O’Shaughnessy has compiled data that stretches back to before the Great Depression, back-tested numerous strategies, and has come to some very intriguing conclusions. [Let me share some of them with you.] Words: 1325
31. Size Does Matter: A Look at Market Capitalization and What It Means for Investors
People choose certain stocks for many different reasons: business location; sector strength; product innovation, but some investors choose what to buy based on company size, or market capitalization [believing that size does matter. Yes,] understanding the difference between small-cap, medium-cap and large-cap companies is the first step to making the right choice. [Let me explain.] Words: 600
