Tag Archives: fiscal deficits

Do higher marginal tax rates materially increase federal revenue? Behavioral responses among high-income taxpayers, the impact of enforcement capacity on compliance, and other implications of restoring pre-2017 tax rates all affect the results. The discussion highlights how income adjustments and structural deficits may limit the effectiveness of rate increases. With annual federal deficits exceeding one trillion dollars in recent years, constrained revenue elasticity, combined with elevated spending, could affect investor confidence and long-term demand for US dollars.

Japan’s post-1989 experience provides a long-running case study on the limits of monetary and fiscal stimulus. After the collapse of a combined equity and property bubble, Japan relied on sustained deficits, near-zero interest rates, and repeated stimulus to stabilize growth. While markets eventually recovered in nominal terms, the process took decades and coincided with a sharp rise in government debt. In 2026, rising bond yields and higher debt servicing costs are testing the durability of this approach. The Japanese experience offers a relevant framework for assessing similar policy paths now being followed globally.

The deficits aren't going to stop anytime soon. The debt mountain will keep growing...Obviously, the debt can't keep growing faster than the economy forever, but the people in charge do seem determined to find out just how far they can push things....The only way for the politicians to buy time will be through price inflation, to reduce the real burden of the debt, and whether they admit it or not, inflation is what they will be praying for....[and] the Federal Reserve will hear their prayer. When will the economy reach the wall toward which it is headed? Not soon, I believe, but in the meantime there will be plenty of excitement. [Let me explain what I expect to unfold.] Words: 1833

There is an ongoing debate among global policymakers about when and how fast to exit from the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus that prevented the Great Recession of 2008-2009 from turning into a new Great Depression. Germany and the European Central Bank are pushing aggressively for early fiscal austerity; the United States is worried about the risks of excessively early fiscal consolidation. Words: 957