Stock Indices

According to Jeremy Grantham the U.S. is in the fourth super-bubble of the last hundred years with the possibility of a 40-50% contraction being highly probable.

I believe we are looking at a very important medium-term peak but I don't believe that is the end of this current market cycle. I think the market cycle will most likely stretch into 2024. What we are facing now, however, is a is a medium-term top in the next few weeks, and then a very decisive decline.

The number, market cap and currencies of the constituents of the HUI, XAU, GDX, XGD and CDNX indices differ considerably from each other and, as such, each index presents a different picture of what is really happening in the precious metals marketplace. This article analyzes the make-up of each index to reveal the biases of each to arrive at the answer to the question in the title. Words: 1026

The Australian Financial Review reports that Munger said Friday that he believes the markets are wildly overvalued in places and that the current environment is “even crazier” than the dotcom boom of the late 1990s that subsequently led to a bust. He is not wrong.

Previously, all the dips — even micro-dips — were almost instantaneously bought by the herd of traders and home-gamers driven by Pavlovian reflexes, thereby reinforcing the power of positive feedback loops but, as Zero Hedge observed, this loop may finally be reaching its sell-by date. Something’s different this time.

For the first time in more than 90 days, the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line - A line that incorporates the breadth of all securities traded on the NYSE - is sitting at a record high and new highs in the NYSE A/D Line have consistently preceded stock gains since 1928. Over the next three months, there were no losses greater than -8.5% at any point for any signal. On average, drawdowns were limited to only -1.6%.

October has begun - the month that has a particularly bad reputation for traders! Is that bad reputation justified?

I don't doubt that the S&P 500 will rise to 5,000 - someday - but it just isn't likely to be this year or next. Let's logically think about this and just where the two keys to market would need to be for 5,000 to be realistic, which are earnings and the PE.

I believe that we are at the end of a very major economic cycle. Not only are markets insane, but so are deficits, debts and currency debasements but also moral and ethical values have now vanished into thin air and been replaced by lies, deceit and the golden calf. We are now in a very critical period for the world since excesses of the magnitude we are now seeing must be corrected... and the corrections will be of a similar magnitude to the rise but happen much quicker. We are talking about falls of 90% or more in all major asset and debt markets. [Let me explain.]

Now is the time for investors to seek out information on how to identify the tell-tale signs of bear markets and how to profit from them, rather than being decimated by them.