Stock Indices

[An analysis of the] 15 Dow recoveries since the origin of this legendary index in 1896 (excluding the Crash of 1929 which was an outlier), adjusted for inflation/deflation shows, in the chart below, that the current 470 day recovery (at time of writing) since its low in March 2009 is the 3rd best compared to all the other recoveries over the same period. That being said are we in for another one or two lows before the recovery takes off for good?] Words: 499

Secular stock market declines have ranged in length from over 19 years to as few as 3 [and] the current decline is now in its 10th year. Every time the P/E10 has fallen from the top to the 2nd quintile [as it has done recently], it has ultimately declined to the 1st quintile and bottomed in single digits. Based on the latest 10-year earnings average, to reach a P/E10 in the high single digits would require [either] an S&P 500 price decline below 540 [or] for corporate earnings to make a strong and prolonged surge. [Which is it going to be and, if it is the former, when might it occur? Only time will tell! Let me explain.] Words: 1338

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index – the oldest stock exchange in the U.S. and most influential in the world – consists of 30 companies and has an extremely interesting and distressing history regarding its beginnings, transformation and structural development which has all the trappings of what is commonly referred to as pyramid or Ponzi scheme. Words: 1233

I know quite a few people who are still invested in the stock market – if not up to their necks, then certainly for a lot of money. They smile knowingly and say, “Do you know a better place to have made money in 2010?” The answer is, “Yes – gold”, which is where I’ve been. Nevertheless, they do have a point: had I held less cash – and added Stocks to my portfolio – last year would have been even better than it was for my... [investment portfolio. That being said, I'm staying] out of the stock market until the FTSE reaches 3000 [and/or the Dow reaches 6,000 and/or so the S&P 500 reaches 600!] Words: 975

Recent market action is causing much anxiety [with] pundits hyperventilating about sovereign loan defaults. [Now,] after Ireland, their attention is focused on Spain and other European countries. The world seems to be filled with worryworts (which is bullish as the market always climbs a wall of worries) [- but worry not]. In terms of magnitude and duration, this bull market will surprise all. In fact, what investors are witnessing is one of the greatest bull markets on record. Within two years, the DJIA and the S&P will reach record highs. Beyond that, the S&P could well double from the current levels. Words: 852

It is fascinating to be living during the greatest Precious Metals (PM) Bull Market in history – and to be entering its Seasonal Strength - and I look forward to keeping you informed on a regular basis throughout 2011 as it unfolds. Words: 1119

From a historical standpoint, the dividend yield of 2% on the S&P 500 is too low. It smacks of a stock market top and underscores the point that the market is too optimistic in the sense that investors are willing to forgo yield because they assume that they will get the return via the capital gain. The last time S&P yields were around this level was in the summer of 2000, and we know what happened shortly after that! Words: 888

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the U.S. economy in 2011 [but not for U.S. stocks if the history of] the Presidential Cycle is any indication. The third year of a president’s [four year] term is typically the strongest producing an average annual gain of 14.12% for the S&P 500 and, under Democratic leadership, that number moves even higher to an average gain of 17.7%! Words: 436

Larry Edelson's proprietary cycle analyses suggests that we could experience declines in the Dow 30 and S&P 500 to 9,000 and 1,000, respectively, by April of 2011; a potential decline in the price of gold to as low as $1126 by August of 2011 and a decline in the price of crude oil to as low as $69 next year - before taking off to record highs. Words: 781

The U.S. stock market finished the month of September with its best performance in 71 years, i.e. since September 1939. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as a benchmark of the total equity market, has gone up 10% since September 1 and all my analyses indicate that the market could see continued strength until at least sometime after the November elections. Words: 614