Stock Indices

Last month, Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel boldly claimed that there was a 70% chance that the DOW could reach 15,000 this year [and that] there's a 50% chance that it could reach 17,500 by the end of 2013. [Here are his reasons]. Words: 291

In spite of all the bearishness out there - the S&P 500 falling to 1,000 (David Tice),the market is overbought (John Hussman), its looking like the bear market of 2011 all over again (David Rosenberg), for example - I tend to disagree for 4 fundamental reasons. Let me explain. Words: 595

It is very understandable why investors believe America’s engines are ready to roar again because economic indicators in America are turning up even though bad news barrages us from all sides... [That being said,] I believe the Dow Jones Index has not bottomed when viewed from an historical perspective with gold. We have further to go down in the Dow/gold ratio before the next big bull market begins. [Let me explain.] Words: 1250

With the S&P 500 at its highest level since the summer of 2008, investors previously sidelined by reoccurring fears of a double dip recession and nagging worries about a disorderly Greek default may now be tempted to hold their noses and dive into the market where, presumably, they will be swept along to the land of outsized profits by the Dow 13,000 wave. Having said this, it is worth noting that often the best time to sell is when everyone else is buying. Now may be that time. [Let me explain.] Words: 885

The U.S. Dollar Index is signaling that this rally might have a bit more room to run. [Let me explain.] Words: 400

At the end of November 2011 the U.S. behavioral indicator for the U.S. stock market, based on insights on investor psychology, touched the crisis threshold for the fifth time (1971,1979, 1986, 2006) since 1970. If the current case follows the four prior cases, we expect a similar positive return from November 2011 to the end of October 2012 as in the four prior periods followed by a decline somewhere between 15% and 30%. [Let me explain.] Words: 317

U.S. stocks are trading at their cheapest levels since at least 1990, according to such commonly used valuations as price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios as well as dividend yield...but [we ask,] cheaper than what? Different "investments" are valued differently at different times during the artificial central-banking business cycle that we must function under. In this case, we would argue, stocks are more likely reflecting potential chaos to come than a buying opportunity. Sure, there may be rallies during this fiat bear market but they should be considered within the context of the larger trends.

Initial unemployment claims may be the most important economic indicator for the stock market in 2012. It is one of the three components of our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator (FSMI), which is highly correlated with the S&P 500, [see graph below] so if initial unemployment claims remain under 400,000 and possibly continue to head lower during January, that would support the strong stock market rally that has kicked off the New Year so far. Words: 395

[While] I do not prescribe to the 2012 end of the world or end of an era phenomenon, my recent fractal (pattern) analysis of the Dow suggests that it is forming a similar pattern to that which was formed in the late 60s to early 70s and if this pattern continues in a similar manner...the Dow could indeed have an annus horribilis (horrible year) in 2012. Let me explain. Words: 1416

This post initiates what I hope will become a multi-year tradition of listing what, according to munKNEE.com readers, were the most read articles in 2011 on how best to invest in the stock market from a broad, and therefore timeless, perspective. Introductory paragraphs and links to each article are provided in descending order of popularity. Enjoy!