Inflation/Deflation

If the dollar keeps rising - which I don't believe it will, or can - U.S. exports will fall and imports will rise, negatively affecting GDP and the trade deficit. Things are going to get choppy.

Everyone seems to be preoccupied with rising inflation nowadays. While I agree that inflation will rise over the next 1-3 years, I don’t think it will even reach high-single digit levels. A return to the 1970s’ double-digit inflation is extremely unlikely. [Here's why.]

The Fed has been trying to increase inflation, operating at the macro level, but what does inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household? Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation.

The claim that, in normal times, energy prices have a direct influence on long-term inflation expectations is puzzling, as it seems to imply that monetary policy is not able to offset price shocks even five or ten years down the road. If confirmed, it could have significant implications on how inflation dynamics are forecast. Hence, we believe that the claim warrants further scrutiny.

Pushing the big problems into the future appears to have been the working strategy for both the Fed and recent Administrations, yet the U.S. dollar and the budget deficit do matter, and the future is at hand. The day of ultimate financial reckoning has arrived, and it is playing out. Words: 1096

Investors got lulled into a state of inflation complacency [with] persistently low official inflation rates in recent years that depressed bond yields along with risk premiums on all financial assets - but that’s changing in 2018. Five drivers of higher inflation rates are now starting to kick in.

Recent economic data has bond yields jumping a little bit on the worry of higher future inflation. According to many this is the main concern behind the recent volatility in stock and bond markets so let’s see if we can’t put some of this data in perspective so we can better understand the risks to our portfolios.

From the beginning of 1990 hyperinflation has occurred in 28 countries around the world on a total of 35 different occasions of which 17 occurred during 1992 alone.

Since the beginning of 1990 hyperinflation has occurred in 28 countries around the world on a total of 35 different occasions with 17 of those countries experiencing hyperinflation during 1992. Currently, only Zimbabwe and Venezuela are plagued by hyperinflation.

The world is careening towards an inflationary shock. As was the case with the beginning of the Housing Crash, few are noticing what's happening and even fewer realize the true scale of what's about to take place.