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The Super Bowl Indicator goes like this: If an original National Football League (now the National Football Conference or NFC) team wins the Super Bowl, stocks should rise for the rest of the year. But if the Super Bowl winner is an original American Football League (now the American Football Conference or AFC) team, stocks should fall. Briefly put, that means as long as you have more of a rooting interest in your 401(k) or IRA than you do either of Sunday’s competitors, you should be pulling for the NFC’s Los Angeles Rams over the AFC’s Cincinnati Bengals.
Before we dive any deeper, we’ll quickly remind anyone who needs reminding that the Super Bowl has absolutely NO effect on the stock market. None whatsoever, but then, what is life without a little nonsense?
As of 1978, when New York Times sportswriter Leonard Koppett introduced the supposed market signal, it had a completely accurate track record. (With a big fat asterisk in that the Pittsburgh Steelers, an AFC team, were counted as an NFC team because the franchise’s origins were in the original NFL.) Since then, the Super Bowl Indicator hasn’t been quite as laser-precise, but generally it has maintained its NFC-good, AFC-bad trend…
Over the past 55 Super Bowls in which the NFC team prevailed…the S&P 500 produced a 10.8% average annual gain but merely a 7.1% improvement when the AFC did the same. Similarly, the S&P 500 finished positive 79.3% of the time in years in which the NFC produced a Super Bowl champion, versus just 65.4% for the AFC.
…[The above being said, though,] when the AFC has won, the S&P 500 Index gained in 10 of the past 11 years…[going up an] an average of 14.4% dating back to 2004, is 14.4%…
The above version of the original article by Kyle Woodley was edited [ ] and abridged (…) to provide you with a faster and easier read.
Editor’s Note: The above article is sponsored by Dominique C. from Holland. You can become a sponsor, too, by going here and making a donation. You will receive a public or private acknowledgement (your choice) and also receive the 258-page e-book entitled WEALTH IF YOU WANT IT (introduction here) as a thank you.
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