Tag Archives: U.S. Dollar Index

Most of the major financial news outlets and many investors have come to rely on the movements of the U.S. Dollar Index as a daily barometer of the U.S. dollar's relative strength and weakness taking it on faith that the Dollar Index is the dollar – pure and simple. In reality, the Index offers a very distortive view of the movement of the dollar against the currencies that matter most. If anything, recent movements of the Index are a reflection of euro weakness rather than dollar strength. Words: 1019

The USD Index just made its first “Golden Cross” in more than 1 year which is a short-medium term bullish sign for the USD...Historically when that has happened the USD usually continued to go higher in the next 2-3 months.

Because we know the trend is down, there is no guesswork about trading from the long side in paper gold. There is no need to “predict” the price direction. Just wait for more information that buyers are beginning to increase (which they are not, so far), and then have a strategy for buying in a changing up trend. Presently, there is no evidence of a change to an up trend, so wait for confirmation and keep one’s powder dry.

Historically, the performance of the S&P 500 Index relative to the U.S. Dollar Index has been a good indicator of bull and bear markets but it has underperformed the Dollar Index since mid-2014. It's an ugly warning sign for the market. I see the stock market moving downward from here.

New changes in the Federal Reserve's discount rate will reverberate through global markets and more than likely increase the price of gold. Here's why.

If you have no gold or silver, you will be “Greeced,” “Cyprused,” or otherwise financially screwed for not taking responsibility for your own economic future. Those who already own either or both gold and silver know this although they still foolishly complain about the paper price continuing to decline - and that focus is grossly misplaced. Here's why.

It does not makes sense to expect any major shake-up that would affect the pricing of gold and silver in a major way until at least January 2016 at which time the IMF is scheduled to meet to discuss the possible inclusion of the Chinese RMB in the basket of fiat currencies that make up the constituents of the U.S. Dollar Index. Let me explain why that is the case.

Gold has been mired in a descending triangle over the past year or so. From a technical perspective, such triangles are likely to be continuation patterns. Gold fundamentals have recently worsened a bit with the most obvious headwind being the continued strength in the U.S. dollar, but this isn’t the only indicator that has turned more bearish lately. This article is an update of the indicators we follow.

The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen through support at 80 once again. If this current decline trend continues it will drop below 79.20 for the first time in nearly two years. This could pave the way for a deeper decline below the 76 level and signal a continuation of the downtrend that started in 2002.

Does the fast-fading world reserve currency [the USD] look like it is collapsing? A look at the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index does not suggest that it is, weak as it is. If the fiat dollar is not in danger of imminent “collapse,” or even breaking down, then gold does not have this event as an impetus for rallying higher. [Frankly speaking,] until that changes, gold ain’t going higher, at least in the short term.