Markets around the globe are all facing key resistance levels at the same time. Can they pull a “Great Escape” and bust through? Yes they can and if they do, it would be very bullish for equity markets around the world [and if they don't, then watch out below!].
Read More »Current Market Overvaluation (from 33% – 51%!) Suggests Cautious Long-term Outlook (+2K Views)
Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, [my analyses indicate that] the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 33% to 51%, depending on which of 4 indicators I used. This is an increase over the previous month's 31% to 48% range. [Let me explain the details.] Words: 475
Read More »Any Way You Look At It the S&P 500 is Overvalued In Excess of 40%!
The S&P 500 is considerably overvalued - somewhere in the range of 34% to 61% - depending on which of 4 market valuation indicators are used and whether the valuation is based on the arithmetric or geometric mean of each. While these findings are not useful as short-term signals of market direction...they play a role in framing longer-term expectations of investment returns and suggest a cautious outlook and guarded expectations. [Here are the details.] Words: 676
Read More »"Wall Street Revalued: Imperfect Markets, Inept Central Bankers" – A Book by Andrew Smithers (+2K Views)
The book's crucial assumption is that “the market” does have a central value and that the world of stock markets is a “mean reverting” world. As a consequence, the market can be over-valued or under-valued but will, over time, return to its central value. Words: 1317
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