Tag Archives: margin debt

When interest rates go down, that spurs economic activity, and that is good for stock prices, so when interest rates start going up rapidly, that is not a good thing for the stock market at all.

After two years of declines, many investors sold their gold holdings and vowed never to invest in gold again. However, in the fall of 1976, gold began an ascent that saw it rise 750%, peaking at $850 a troy ounce three years and four months later. After a 3-year correction, the same opportunity to buy low exists today, just as it did in 1976.

The fact that margin debt is now in a downtrend and its relatively massive size suggests returns over the next three years will be very poor. In other words, based solely on this one measure, buying stocks today presents investors with a great deal of risk for very little potential reward.

Margin debt right now is sending a very clear signal that investors have recently become very greedy suggesting that a new bear market is likely underway which could culminate in a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 and, because of the sheer size of the potential forced supply that could come to market in this sort of environment, could easily be just the beginning.

Here's an updated look at U.S. market valuations which suggest they remain at or above the levels that prevailed before previous major corrections.

Reasonable people understand that the stock market can go down as well as up so after a six year run that pushed the Dow Jones up dramatically, maybe it’s time to stop looking for reasons to buy stocks and begin looking for reasons to sell. This article presents 7 sound reasons to do the latter.

Are the general stock markets and precious metals and precious metals equities about to experience a reversal in fortunes? Based upon current evidence, I think so. Here's why.

The U.S. stock market has been closing at one record high after another but, despite the seemingly unending investor optimism more than five years into the current bull market, some worrisome issues are continuing to build under the surface. Like all past bull markets, the latest episode will eventually come to an end and a new bear market will begin and it has the potential to be even worse than the two previous downturns since the start of the new millennium...

The 4 fundamentals and technicals discussed in this article accurately called stock market crashes in 2000 and 2007 and these same market metrics are again TODAY warning that a possible financial tsunami is brewing on the horizon. No one knows for certain WHEN the tsunami will hit Wall Street...but, without question, today’s stocks exhibit extremely exaggerated valuations, and extremes never last, so make no mistake, a major stock sell-off looms.

...For US stocks — and by implication most other equity markets — the danger signals are piling up to the point where a case can be made that the end is, at last, near. Take a look at these examples of indicators that should scare the hell out of anyone with a big stock portfolio.