Tag Archives: interest rates

History clearly shows that stocks don't fall during periods of rising interest rates. Sure, they might fall a little when a rate hike is announced - maybe for a week or so - but they usually bounce back quickly - and then they go higher.

Precious metals - Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and there respective mining shares - have failed to sustain any rebound despite tremendously supportive sentiment amid an extreme oversold condition. Nevertheless, we believe that the bottom is in and a rebound should begin very soon. The question though is, "What will the driving force be for a sustainable rebound which will evolve into a new cyclical bull market?" Below are several options to be considered and my assessment as to which it will be - and why.

Why isn’t gold going through the roof? This article looks at the common arguments why it should and the realities as to why it isn't.

Interest rates have been manipulated to keep them extremely low in an attempt to stimulate the economy but...unless deficits are dramatically reduced.... interest rates will eventually rise and government interest expense will double or triple from the amounts being paid today. That potentially triggers a debt death spiral, where government has to borrow more than otherwise expected. It also raises the credit risk and could ratchet interest rates up again. It has happened to Greece, Portugal, Spain and other European countries already this year and could well happen in the U.S. too. Words: 595

Interest rates have been manipulated to keep them extremely low in an attempt to stimulate the economy but...unless deficits are dramatically reduced.... interest rates will eventually rise and government interest expense will double or triple from the amounts being paid today. That potentially triggers a debt death spiral, where government has to borrow more than otherwise expected. It also raises the credit risk and could ratchet interest rates up again. It has happened to Greece, Portugal, Spain and other European countries already this year and could well happen in the U.S. too. Words: 595

U.S. imports of oil have skyrocketed from 28% 30 years ago to 49% in 2010 [and if the price of crude oil were to skyrocket it would have devastating effects on the economy but be advantagous to the savvy investor. Let me explain.] Words: 368

At present, the underlying fundamentals could not be much worse for the U.S. dollar. Beyond trade, the key factors, relative to other major currencies, could not be much worse. Despite any political and financial hype in the markets, the U.S. economy is relatively weaker, interest rates are lower, inflation is higher and fiscal policy and political stability all are relatively much worse than are seen relative to the other major currencies.

One typically doesn’t look to government bureaucracies to receive hard-nosed, objective discussions on the economy so you can magine my surprise when the latest Financial System Review, published semi-annually by the Bank of Canada, landed in my inbox and I discovered that it contained a very sobering look at Canada’s economy and the many systemic risks the country is facing! It’s not surprising that this report was not picked up by the main stream news, because if they did the popular opinion of Canada’s invincible, recession-proof economy might begin to crumble. [Let me explain.] Words: 2400

[Unfortunately,] for the U.S....its budget deficit is growing in spite of the fact revenues into the treasury continue to grow...Given the low level of interest rates on the Treasury's debt it would not take much of an interest rate spike in the U.S. to negatively impact the government's budget. [So, in reply to the unspoken question on everyone's mind, "Yes, the debit crisis could most definitely spread to the U.S." Let me explain further.] Words: 633

The precious metals correction is here. Gold and silver are down... and gold and silver stocks, as should be expected, are down even more but...have been hit much harder than they should have been. As a result, right NOW is the best time [we have seen] to buy gold stocks in more than two years and they’re poised to make another run of 30% in the next few months. Here’s why. Words: 767