Tag Archives: fundamental analysis

If a strategy, model, or indicator can’t even beat brain-dead buy and hold, then it doesn’t have much value [and that is the case with the 200 day moving average]. For every one time it does work, there are two times it doesn’t work. In other words, technical analysis gives you too many false signals that causes you to underperform buy and hold. Here's proof.

The only way to make money in the markets is with a long-term perspective. That’s it! Instant-access, low-cost trading and a mountain of stock data are both a blessing and a curse. The fact is we have too much information available to us, and most of it is useless noise.

Whether it is called "systematic trend-following", "momentum trading" or "turtle trading", it all comes down to entering trades on the basis of markets breaking out from previously established ranges and following some basic rules thereafter. It requires no special understanding of any given market - just a healthy respect for the price action - and can make you a lot of money in the process. Here are the details.

Current macro conditions indicate that we are in a sweet spot for equity returns...that global growth is continuing and there is little or no tail risk in the immediate future. It's time to get long equities...but I have this nagging feeling that these market conditions are too good to be true. If you look, there are a number of technical and fundamental clouds on the horizon.

Technical analysis is a measure different from fundamental analysis...and we qualifying our approach with a specialized subset of technical analysis. How so? We read price and volume behavior, over time, in the form of developing market activity. It is what one sees on a chart, price ranges, close locations, volume, time factor[s], but no more. Below are charts that suggest that the weakness in silver may be coming to an end, sooner now rather than later, but that for now, it is what it is - and what is, is reality.

All fundamentals and opinions are useless in the markets because they pertain to timing, and timing plays a huge role when investing/trading....[and only] put one’s belief system into a context with regard to the market[s]....It does not matter what others say about the market; what matters is what the market says about others. The market is, and always will be, the final arbiter of all “facts” and “opinions.” [This article give an update on exactly what the charts are currently saying about gold and silver.]

The whole world of fundamental and technical analysis seems to be in a state of chronic confusion - confounded by this seemingly trendless stock market....[Usually] the stock market possesses the ability to forecast coming events but the periodic spates of Fed stimulation have thrown some sand into the stock market's delicate machine....Thus, we see the stock market ‘up on Fed-created stilts’ and at the same time we see depressing economic news in the newspaper headlines. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are sitting on near-record lows. We're seeing a strange paradox here.

On a theoretical basis, everyone knows to buy when others are fearful, to be contrarian, to avoid panic. On a practical basis, [however,] hardly anyone has the discipline and courage to act. [Below I outline] three ways that the individual investor can profit from the current volatility. Words: 614

Now that we are at a crossroads in both commodity and equity markets heavy technical analysis, in addition to a standard fundamental outlook, may prove useful in identifying the next big swings - before they occur - for gold, silver), and crude oil... [and answer the prevailing question of those looking to establish, or re-establish, commodity positions: "Is now the time to jump into one or more of these markets or should I] sit on the sidelines a bit longer. [Let's take a look.] Words: 2012

If you like to trade online, or if you already do, fundamental analysis is surely one of the best tools that you could ever acquire as a retail trader. Let me explain. Words: 730