Tag Archives: fiscal cliff

The perfect storm is the real fiscal cliff that we’re going to go over. The real fiscal cliff is when we can’t borrow any more money because our creditors wake up to the fact that we’re no good for the debt and interest rates start to rise.

The U.S. federal government is scheduled to implement a fiscal tightening of unprecedented severity (approx. 5% of GDP) at the start of 2013. The last time a tightening of such proportions occurred (3% of GDP in 1969) it presaged a recession. Thus, unless mitigated by an act of Congress, we expect the fiscal cliff would lead the U.S. into a recession in 2013. Below, in 26 charts, we examine all aspects of the impending crisis to gauge its potential impact on the credit markets and, by extension, our strategic investment recommendations.

In the face of the now-obvious negative outlook - the corrosive effect of deflation deleveraging, excessive debt, the softening U.S. and global economy, the "fiscal cliff", the implausibility of a European solution, the probability of a hard landing in China and the prospect that corporate earnings estimates were far too high - the question we get most often is why the market has declined so little, and why it seems so resistant to bad news. In our view the reluctance of the market to give up much ground is typical of....Words: 356

In the face of the now-obvious negative outlook - the corrosive effect of deflation deleveraging, excessive debt, the softening U.S. and global economy, the "fiscal cliff", the implausibility of a European solution, the probability of a hard landing in China and the prospect that corporate earnings estimates were far too high - the question we get most often is why the market has declined so little, and why it seems so resistant to bad news. In our view the reluctance of the market to give up much ground is typical of....Words: 356