Tag Archives: deflation

You don’t need [actual] deflation—a reduction in the outstanding supply of money—to have markets react to a decrease in the rate of money supply growth..., anticipate the eventual deflation [and begin to price it into the market. Remember 2008?] Oil prices fell from $147 in July of 2008 to $33 per barrel by early 2009. The S&P 500 went into free-fall starting in September of 2008 and bottomed out in March of 2009—falling almost 50% in six months. This is what has already happened to the gold mining sector but, remember, central banks may be on a counterfeiting holiday right now but they have a history of taking very short vacations.

Global investors are now being violently whipsawed by the decisions of central banks, as they switch between inflationary and deflationary policies. The choice governments now face is to allow a deflationary depression to finally purge the worldwide economy of its imbalances, or try to levitate real estate, equity and bond prices by printing massive quantities of their currencies.

For those who think bonds are a safe place to be, you might want to reconsider. In addition to rising sovereign risk (yes, for the U.S. as well as other countries), there is interest rate risk....[should you not] hold it to maturity. If interest rates rise, then the value of your bond falls (Bonds can produce capital gains/losses, just like stocks.) and the possibility of interest rates rising is pretty good. Words: 530

Whether our current economic crisis will end with massive inflation or in a deflationary spiral (ultimately, either one results in a Depression) is more than an academic one. It is the single most important variable for near and intermediate term investing success. It is also important in regard to taking actions which can prepare and protect you and your family. [Here is my assessment of what the future outcome will likely be and why.] Words: 1441

"An essential point in the social philosophy of interventionism is the existence of an inexhaustible fund which can be squeezed forever. The whole system of interventionism collapses when this fountain is drained off: The Santa Claus principle liquidates itself." [This article discusses the reality of the current economic crisis and] what is required to revive the economy. Words: 1666

Despite the practical impossibility of real comparisons we know perfectly well that the value of a dollar or a pound, shekel, rouble or euro isn’t what it used to be...This fact, however, doesn’t stop us from almost exclusively focussing on how much money we have today rather than what it can purchase for us: we think about money in nominal terms rather than real ones [- and that is what is known as money illusion. Let me explain.] Words: 873

Currency wars arise when a country steals growth from trading partners by cheapening its currency to promote exports. The new currency war began in 2010 when President Obama declared in his State of the Union address that it was the policy of the United States to double exports in five years. Since the U.S. would not become twice as productive in five years, the implication was the U.S. would severely cheapen its currency to achieve this goal. [Let me expand upon this.] Words: 666

Inflation is the central banks' method of avoiding the pain of austerity. Inflation is the current economic narcotic that is used by modern nations. It's the old ‘beggar thy neighbor’ system, and it will ultimately result either in all out hyperinflation and a collapse of the fiat currency system or a corrective deflationary crash. Either way, the last currency standing will be gold.

Whilst we as staunch Austrians would prefer less liquidity provision and more allowance for markets to naturally self-correct and deleverage... we suspect that as markets try to self-correct, the authorities generally will be forced to print more and more [as] it is the easiest course for them to take and the typically all too human option...As such we look once more at how inflationary and deflationary outcomes might affect precious metal investors. Words: 1323

Short-term volatile moves in Gold, as we have seen over the past few months, do not affect our projections for the future price of Gold based on our fractal (pattern) "model" off the late 70's Gold Bull. Just as we correctly projected the $1,920 high in our April article entitled Goldrunner: Gold on track to Reach $1860 to $,920 by Mid-year (gold reached $1,917.20 in late August and $1,923.70 in early September, 2011), our current analysis indicates that Gold will enter a range between $3,000 and $3,500 by mid-year 2012. Words: 975