Tag Archives: Consumer Price Index

Economist Gary Shilling, excellent forecaster of past recessions and chief pooh-pooher of today’s market enthusiasm, thinks consumers are in worse shape than they’re letting on ...[and,] while his general pessimism puts him very much at odds with the market for the first few months of the year, it looks like he’s gaining some followers. [Take a look at his] point-by-point explanations of his opinions, [supported by charts , and see if you, too, come to the same conclusions.] Words: 740

Core CPI [continues to rise, remaining] above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. [That being said,] how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depends on our relative exposure to the individual components. [Let's take a look at the specifics.] Words: 291

The Fed justified the previous round of quantitative easing "to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate". In effect, the Fed has been trying to increase inflation at the macro level, but what does an increase in inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household? [Let's take a look and see.] Words: 957

Due to high unemployment and a weak recovery world central bankers are focused on weakening their currencies to boost exports. [As such,] I think [even more] quantitative easing and other currency intervention is in our future...[and this will further increase]...both inflation and the price of gold. Let me explain with a few charts.] Words: 350

The Fed justified the last round of quantitative easing "to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate". In effect, the Fed is trying to increase inflation, operating at the macro level but what does an increase in inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household? [Let's take a look.] Words: 1555

Housing makes up 42% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) with the rest of it - food, energy, clothing, recreation, education, transportation, toys, cosmetics, etc. - making up the other 58%. [The current] softness of housing prices is artificially suppressing the growth of the CPI inflation rate [but with the coming increase in lumber costs that is about to change. Let me explain] Words: 772

The economic news is not very encouraging these days. Everywhere I've looked, and I've looked at 10 different indicators (surveys, polls and indexes), things appear to be either down or stagnant. Let me be more explicit. Words: 1058

Most economists see the latest Q1 GDP stumble as a blip, something we shouldn't worry about because the economy is still on track for recovery...[but] another way to look at it is that the economy is being harmed by monetary inflation and we are seeing massive distortions in the economy as a result of this intentional Fed policy - economic growth is stalling and industrial production, manufacturing, non-manufacturing, durable goods production, retail sales and employment is flattening-to-declining... I think this is the correct way of looking at things and, [as such,] Q1 is not a temporary blip on the road to recovery... [but another mile down the road to economic stagflation, price inflation, lower real estate prices, continuing high unemployment, a weaker dollar, higher taxes and more - much more! Let me explain.] Words: 2997

Based on past massive monetary pumping, and using the time lag of 36 months which it normally takes before changes in money supply generate a visible effect on the prices of goods in general, we forecast that the yearly rate of growth of the CPI based inflation could rise to 2.4 percent by September of this year before jumping to 4.4 percent by December. Year on year, the rate of growth of the CPI less food and energy is forecast to climb to 1.5 percent by September before climbing to 2.7 percent in December. Let me explain. Words: 1670

In Europe, they were able to come up with a clever moniker, PIGS, to succinctly represent [and name the countries in dire financial straights - Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, Greece and Spain] the most boorish animals on the farm, and [I have taken it upon myself to call the U.S. state budget crises] the story of CAIN (California, Arizona, Alaska, Illinois, New York and New Jersey), the seven most rotten pillars of our union, and (Un)Abel, the country as a whole, which is (Un)Abel, i.e. unable, to do anything about the impending crises. Given the current political climate and implicit anti-bailout mandate of the new Congress, the Federal government might be powerless to do anything but accept painful state defaults. Before we know it, we could all be ancestors of evil... 2011 could be the year that CAIN starts to face some serious trouble, and may need some serious help to avoid killing his brother (Un)Abel! Words: 1529