I believe that the inflation and price charts paint a clear picture, and that until inflation in the world picks up significantly, there will be no meaningful rallies in precious metals...[While] I am bullish on gold and silver long term, the short-term pressure is still evident and might take them lower in the next couple of months.
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Tips from TIPS on Prospects for Growth, Outlook for Inflation & Future for Gold
TIPS are telling us that the market is quite pessimistic about the prospects for real growth, but not concerned at all about the outlook for inflation.
Read More »Next Bear Market Shaping Up To Be Quite the Storm – Here’s Why (+2K Views)
The U.S. stock market has been closing at one record high after another but, despite the seemingly unending investor optimism more than five years into the current bull market, some worrisome issues are continuing to build under the surface. Like all past bull markets, the latest episode will eventually come to an end and a new bear market will begin and it has the potential to be even worse than the two previous downturns since the start of the new millennium...
Read More »Today’s Shiller PE Suggests the Stock Market Is Overvalued By 60%! (+2K Views)
We estimate that a 'fair price' for the market is a Shiller PE of around 16. With the market at close to a Shiller PE of 26, the market is overvalued by about 60%. Now is not a historically good time to initiate a position in the S&P500.
Read More »These Indicators Should Scare the Hell Out of Anyone With A Stock Portfolio (+2K Views)
...For US stocks — and by implication most other equity markets — the danger signals are piling up to the point where a case can be made that the end is, at last, near. Take a look at these examples of indicators that should scare the hell out of anyone with a big stock portfolio.
Read More »Believe It or Not: Both Bulls & Bears Playing In Current Market
The current U.S. equity market has something for everyone. Whether you are bullish or bearish, there is no shortage of indicators or charts you can use to support your thesis.
Read More »Are You A Bull Or A Bear? Here Are Indicators & Charts That Support Your Thesis (+2K Views)
The current U.S. equity market has something for everyone. Whether you are bullish or bearish, there is no shortage of indicators or charts you can use to support your thesis. Let’s run through both the Bull and the Bear case here. In the spirit of Confirmation Bias, feel free to skip ahead to the part that best supports your current positioning.
Read More »And You Thought You Understood the Stock Market! Here Are More Insights (2K Views)
The best way to understand how the stock market fluctuates is to study trends of individual stocks and broad market behaviors. I’ve created this infographic to help you do just that.
Read More »Your IRA Is At Risk – Here’s Why & What To Do About It
The myRA program, which ostensibly helps people save for retirement (though it offers no benefits over existing options). is the opening shot in the undeclared war on your retirement savings and an eyebrow-raising ruling in the US Tax Court is the second shot. Let me explain.
Read More »Gold Should Bounce Sharply Higher – Here Are 10 Reasons Why (+4K Views)
Is it time to throw in the towel? Is the bull market in precious metals really over? I don't think so because my analyses suggest that nearly all of the fundamental factors that have been driving the gold price higher in the past decade have only strengthened in the past two years. Now that the correction has most likely run its course, I expect gold to bounce sharply higher. Here are 10 reasons why.
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