Conditions are favorable for a strong U.S. stock market performance in the fourth quarter of 2014 and into first half of 2015 once the current corrective selling has abated. Here's why.

John LaForge, commodities strategist at Ned Davis Research has said that gold should drop about 40% lower than where it is currently trading down to $660 an ounce. I think LaForge is dead wrong and this article argues the reasons why the gold market has not yet peaked and why we are in a counter-trend correction within the long-term bull market.

I have seen the light. I have seen the error of my ways. At long last, I understand. This stock market is a great investment. Stocks are just going to keep going up and up and up and up. Anyone who doesn’t buy now is a fool. I have learned to love the bull market. Yeah, sure!

The saying, "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me" suggests that the general populace of America should be very, very ashamed! It is evident that they are prone to being fooled and robbed over and over again as they invest in a fake stock market, are sold over-valued housing and accept scraps of partial employment, food stamps, poverty level social security and poor healthcare from incompetent governance - and then try to escape by using credit and debt to keep up a standard of living without ever acquiring anything of real value.

Look for huge volume and accumulation in gold and silver over the next few weeks and in some high quality junior mining stocks. Negative capitulation followed by strong accumulation could be the indicator that the smart money expects gold and silver to bottom. The question for many is when this will occur. It should be soon as this correction in the junior miners has been one of the worst and longest in decades providing possibly a once in a generation buying opportunity.

The Russell 3000, a broad equity index representing 98% of the investable U.S. stock market, is up 9.3% for 2014 on a total-return basis...[but] the median total return for Russell 3000 constituents is just 1.5% reflecting the fact that small- and mid-cap stocks are under-performing... This current alarming deterioration in breadth, a term that refers to how much of the market is participating in the advance, begs the question: "Is the stock market sitting on a trap door?" This article looks at 2 trap door indicators that suggest that that might, indeed, be the case.

Some witless pollyannas will say the title of this article is inappropriate. Unfortunately, these hapless souls suffer from excessive greed, rampant euphoria and hyper-complacency. Furthermore, they are ignorant of stock market history and its immutable cycles where only magnitude and duration vary. They foolishly delude themselves into believing that the US Fed has “banned” bear markets and has discovered the “magic elixir” to kill all potential bears while they are still cubs or in hibernation.

The S&P 500 just extended its winning streak to seven straight quarters, and it's reasonable to wonder just how long it can continue...[That being said, however,] investors often enjoy a strong wind at their back in the fourth quarter, based on seasonal patterns and stock market history. Will 2014 be different [or will, as history suggests,] investors find a shiny new quarter during the next three months? [This article looks at these patterns to come to a better understanding of how the markets likely will perform for the balance of 2014.]

Our "Barnyard" analysis from a year ago resulted in 6 out of 8 points indicating that the market would be favorable over the next 6-18 months. That has come true, with the S&P 500 up nearly 20% since then. We expect many will be surprised by the latest Barnyard Forecast which we present below.

I see various signs that indicate that gold bulls may have to endure one more capitulation to the downside before the next leg of the bull market begins. In what follows I identify what could send the gold price lower and suggest some investment strategies to consider.