After a long period of very low interest rates following the global financial crisis the central banks of the U.S. and U.K. are planning to gradually tighten their easy monetary policies as their economies improve. When their benchmark interest rates go up, interest rates elsewhere will go up to so should we worry if and when global financial conditions tighten?
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We’re Doomed! Rising Interest Rates Will Cause Our Financial System To Implode (+2K Views)
We're doomed! Even if the economy were growing at a faster pace, it wouldn't come close to offsetting the interest payments on our ever-expanding debt. As such, any sort of credit shock - either rising rates or a decline in the rate of debt expansion - will cause the system to implode. Let me explain why that is the case.
Read More »Interest Rates to Remain Low As Far As the Eye Can See? Perhaps, BUT…(+2K Views)
Everyone knows that interest rates are going to rise in the future so the real question is not whether they will rise, but when and by how much. [This article analyzes when that will most likely be.]
Read More »Higher Interest Rates Will Come Once These 4 Economic Conditions Are Met (+2K Views)
4 economic conditions need to be in place for interest rates to rise ahead of – and independent of – the Fed’s forward guidance. The economy met only one of those conditions to date but will likely meet all four by the end of the year...What follows is a status report on the four conditions.
Read More »Weak Gold Price & Falling Interest Rates Say Current Monetary Policy Is Too Tight – Here’s Why (+2K Views)
A change in monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policy is necessary to beat back the forces of recession and deflation. If the messages of falling gold prices and falling interest rates are not enough to gain the attention of policy makers, I suspect that the specter of future falling stock prices throughout the world will be. That is what is in store for us if the recessionary/deflationary bias in the world economy that gold and bonds are signaling, reasserts itself.
Read More »Where Are Gold & Silver, Interest Rates & the Stock Market Going In the Next 1-5 Years? A Perspective (+2K Views)
Investing in natural resources and precious metals is attractive today because the sector is so much cheaper than it was three years ago.
Read More »Interest Rates NOT Rising Any Time Soon – Even With Fed Tapering. Here’s Why
Everyone and their mom is expecting long-term interest rates to rise now that the Fed is tapering its bond buying programs. I have a couple of problems with this line of thinking because, although it seems like reducing demand for a security (i.e. tapering QE) would result in a drop in price, when you really think about how quantitative easing works this makes no sense and, secondly, the market is telling us this makes no sense. Let me explain.
Read More »What Affect, If Any, Will Rising Interest Rates Have On the Stock Market (+2K Views)
The belief is that rising interest rates (as is currently occurring) are a sign that the economy is improving as activity is pushing borrowing rates higher. In turn, as investors, this bodes well for corporate profitability which supports the current valuations of stocks in the market. While this seems completely logical the question is whether, or not, this is really the case?
Read More »Don’t Worry About the Threat of Higher Interest Rates Hurting Stocks – Here’s Why (+2K Views)
History clearly shows that stocks don't fall during periods of rising interest rates. Sure, they might fall a little when a rate hike is announced - maybe for a week or so - but they usually bounce back quickly - and then they go higher.
Read More »Variable Interest Rates: Staring Into the Abyss (+2K Views)
It seems that the past few years of falling interest rates have lulled a big part of the global economy into financing with variable-rate debt...[As such,] when interest rates go up (as they did last week), there’s a world-wide reset in interest costs that, best case, amounts to a tax increase on individuals and businesses and, worst-case, threatens to blow up the whole system.
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