Believe it or not, what follows is supposedly the transcript of a recent speech by the outspoken Gustavo Laframboise-Pierre, Global Director of Statistical Creation at the European Central Bank, to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s “Economic Symposium”. It provides considerable inside insight into what is going to unfold regarding interest rates.

When the Fed eventually raises interest rates it will likely usher in an unprecedented era of financial market instability and accelerated economic decline, and consequently, heightened social unrest, geopolitical instability, and a host of other nasty events

According to the 4 percent rule, retirees who withdraw 4% of their initial retirement portfolio balance, and then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year thereafter, can create a paycheck that lasts for 30 years. The concept has recently been criticized given the fact that the current crop of retirees are entering retirement during a period of historically low interest rates so the question of how much a retiree can safely spend each year is now more important than ever. This article reviews the original concept and puts forth a number of variations to help you answer the question put forth in the title: How much can I spend in retirement without running out of money?

What is unique about this rally is the excessive premium being placed on future earnings and economic growth. Unfortunately, the level and term structure of interest rates are not confirming the broad logic behind these equity market valuations. In fact, they damn that logic. In the past, when high valuation measures occurred and subsequent GDP was weak, the stock market has posted substantial losses. What can we expect this time?

When markets expect that U.S. interest rates will be hiked, it typically strengthens the dollar because people rush to change other currencies into dollars where they can make more money and this higher demand for the USD drives its value up.

With interest rates being pushed lower year after year, interest expense as a % of disposable income has been declining in Canada and, for the moment, these low interest rates keep the whole thing glued together but, were interest rates to ever rise, Canada's economy would blow up. Here's why.

Martin Armstrong sees a peak in bond prices by October 1st, 2015 and a low in interest rates from that point forward - a "Sovereign Debt Big Bang" - and, as the defaults begin to materialize over the following 2 years, a run-up in stocks for safety with interest rates rising along with share prices. Below are excerpts from Armstrong's blog complete with notable charts of his Economic Confidence Model.

It is common for economists to offer a forecast for the stock market yet add a caveat to the effect that "If a war shock or terrorist attack occurs, then I would have to modify my outlook." As such, it would seem logical to assume that...they must have access to a study showing that such events affect the stock market, right? The answer is no, for the same reason that they do not check relationships between interest rates, oil prices or the trade balance and the stock market. The causality just seems too sensible to doubt.

Over the last 14 years, house prices in Canada have increased by 150%, twice as fast as in the U.S...[and] far outpacing household incomes. Any increase in interest rates would prick the bubble, and its implosion would trigger all sorts of mayhem to the point that the Canadian government has expressed concerned that such an event would be a significant risk to the "stability of the financial system".

Interest rates will not rise again in our lifetime. Why, you ask? Because the leverage in the system would collapse the very financial assets and governments which underpin the global financial systems. It is INFLATE or DIE and it provides the additional benefit of feeding insolvent welfare states and the socialist politicians to feed their "useful idiot" supporters. Today’s missive will put some meaning into that observation.