This post shows JPMorgan's estimated probabilities on four different fiscal cliff outcomes, conditional on who wins the presidential election in November.

The perfect storm is the real fiscal cliff that we’re going to go over. The real fiscal cliff is when we can’t borrow any more money because our creditors wake up to the fact that we’re no good for the debt and interest rates start to rise.

Governments everywhere are becoming more distressed and desperate as economic realities dominate the political doublespeak. The world is at a dangerous point. Much of what we thought we knew and assumed regarding governmental behavior and economics is beginning to be reassessed. Governments of the world are out of money and out of ideas. The ponzi scam that has been perpetrated for over fifty years is collapsing under its own weight. There are not enough suckers and capital left to sustain the fraud. [Let me explain further.] Words: 999

In a note to clients, BofA rates strategists Priya Misra and Shyam Rajan say the Fed is "waiting for the triple threat" - three key triggers that must be met before the Fed does any additional easing. They are...

"… those who are waiting for the Fed cavalry to ride over the hill and rescue the economy are doomed to disappointment....The banks are awash in loanable funds, businesses are cash-rich and opportunity-poor, and interest rates are already so low that lower still will not attract borrowing....More liquidity is unlikely to impart more impetus to the sluggish economy…. Congress and the President should not count on the Fed to bail them out of their mistakes…. Central banks are unable to help in the face of persistently flawed economic policies."

Fact #7: As of summer 2012, the federal government’s outstanding debt surpassed $15 trillion. Who are the nation’s creditors?

By threatening to drop money out of helicopters to fight deflation - to leave a paperweight on the "print" button if you will - Bernanke convinced the market and all of Wall Street that the Fed would always be there to step in and save the day. [In fact, however,] the whole thing was a bluff meant to prop up the markets - the famed Bernanke Put - and it was a lie. The markets will be realizing this in the coming months, if not sooner, and when they do, we'll see the REAL Collapse: the one to which 2008 was just a warm-up. [Let me explain.] Words: 444

Warning: New evidence points toward an imminent financial collapse and the destruction of American wealth. Income, investments, retirement, and even personal safety are now at severe risk. In this new video I lay it all out for you. Words: 515

The coming economic collapse (Depression) is inevitable but the route taken to this ending is uncertain. The road has parallel routes, either a deflationary collapse or a hyperinflationary collapse. Which route is taken depends upon government so, which will it be? Words: 1350

We are facing a crisis in Europe that is far, far worse than 2008. [It is so bad that,] before it ends, it is quite possible that we will see the entire western financial system collapse and a new system put into place. Words: 912