The markets are considerably, fantastically overbought and that whatever happens after this “Wall Street Party” is going to be a sort of catastrophe. Here's why.

What is the likely market return in the coming new year? This articles tries to answer that question by presenting technical and fundamental market factors that are influencing the market in the coming year. Some of these factors point to a positive market return this year while others point to negative influences. Let's take a look.

Central banks are now privy to not only the emails and phone calls of all the world’s politicians, business leaders, journalists, accountants and lawyers but to the innermost thoughts of every citizen who uses an electronic device for communication. With this information we can use our resources to control the global markets.

Current macro conditions indicate that we are in a sweet spot for equity returns...that global growth is continuing and there is little or no tail risk in the immediate future. It's time to get long equities...but I have this nagging feeling that these market conditions are too good to be true. If you look, there are a number of technical and fundamental clouds on the horizon.

The Baltic Dry Index is often looked at as a leading indicator of the global economy as higher shipping rates indicate stronger demand for shipping and healthier global trade. Year to date, the index is up 234% and is now at its highest level in more than three years (November 2010). This would indicate that the global economy is picking up steam.

Finance executives in Asia see the writing on the wall. They can see that the dollar is in a period of terminal decline, and that the Chinese renminbi is going to take tremendous market share away from the dollar - and they want a big piece of the action. To that end representatives of the Hong Kong Exchange and the Singapore Exchange, THE two dominant financial centers in Asia, have signed an agreement to combine their forces in rolling out more financial products denominated in Chinese renminbi. This has massive consequences for the global financial system - and the future of the U.S. dollar.

The next black swan is already staring us in the face. It's out of control currency debasement and it's going to be a collapse in the purchasing power of the US dollar. [After all,] does anyone seriously think that we can print trillions of dollars out of thin air for five years and not eventually have something bad happen?

The stock market is likely to experience a 4-year overall market loss of -25%, followed by positive 9% average annual total returns for the S&P 500 over the subsequent 6-year period, which would compound to produce a 10-year total return averaging 2.3%.

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Thanks to the data gathering of the NSA and its subsidiary spy agencies around the world, the Central Banks will now be privy to the most confidential conversations and communications from the boardroom, the bedroom and the trading floor. Central Banks will now be able to trade with inside information that could only be dreamed about in years gone by.