We estimate that a 'fair price' for the market is a Shiller PE of around 16. With the market at close to a Shiller PE of 26, the market is overvalued by about 60%. Now is not a historically good time to initiate a position in the S&P500.

The S&P 500 is now up over 180% since troughing in March 2009 and it has been almost 3 years since the stock market experienced a 10% correction. Historically, market corrections happen approximately every 2 years on average. [As such,] we think that this rally is getting very long in the tooth and we wouldn't be surprised if we have a healthy pullback in the coming weeks or months.

...For US stocks — and by implication most other equity markets — the danger signals are piling up to the point where a case can be made that the end is, at last, near. Take a look at these examples of indicators that should scare the hell out of anyone with a big stock portfolio.

The current U.S. equity market has something for everyone. Whether you are bullish or bearish, there is no shortage of indicators or charts you can use to support your thesis.

The current U.S. equity market has something for everyone. Whether you are bullish or bearish, there is no shortage of indicators or charts you can use to support your thesis. Let’s run through both the Bull and the Bear case here. In the spirit of Confirmation Bias, feel free to skip ahead to the part that best supports your current positioning.

Analysts and investors seem to be very bearish towards silver, but we think that the fundamentals of silver are now becoming extremely attractive in terms of contrarian opportunities. Volatility and risk are not always commensurate, and we believe that silver offers investors fundamentals that can be much stronger than expected and returns that would be magnified by the small size of the silver market (and the bearish positioning by participants). Contrarian investors would be wise to take note.

At the end of last year virtually every every single economist expected interest rates to rise this year as the Fed tapered their purchases and the economy improved but, in fact, interest rates on the 10 year U.S. Treasury have been going down year to date (from 3% to 2.5% after rising from about 1.6% to 3% last year). The masses, going along with this crowd, got fooled but we have been calling for a decline in interest rates for some time now due to world-wide deflation and it couldn’t be clearer to us that this is the most likely scenario for the United States. Let us explain.

Is it time to throw in the towel? Is the bull market in precious metals really over? I don't think so because my analyses suggest that nearly all of the fundamental factors that have been driving the gold price higher in the past decade have only strengthened in the past two years. Now that the correction has most likely run its course, I expect gold to bounce sharply higher. Here are 10 reasons why.

It is a reasonable bet that gold, about 40% below its 2011 high and facing large demand and dwindling supply, will rally in price over the next few years. Silver prices will follow gold prices but rally farther and faster from their currently low and oversold condition.

If you want to make money long-term, you have to bet against the prevailing consensus of most financial experts. I have never seen such an overwhelming bullish consensus as there is today that the economy is going to do great, that gold is a sell, and that the stock market is going to go higher, and if you want to build speculative wealth, you have to bet against that.