The Gold/Copper price ratio is a way to examine the state of the economy through the relative performance of the "pro-growth" copper price and the "anti-growth" gold price. This filters out the distorting effect of currency inflation/deflation, and allows us to focus only on gold and copper themselves. In 2016 we have a historically high Gold/Copper ratio, the likes of which we have only seen before in the Great Depression, the "stagflation" of the 1970s, and the 2008 Great Recession. This is a clear sign of a slowing, weakening global economy. Below are the details.

As the narrative goes, either we buy into the unlimited and more or less guaranteed creation of wealth for all who follow the agreed-upon wisdom, or we reject it, and prepare for the inevitable collapse of the financial system and the value of money. The problem, however, is that both the present and the recent past are completely different from either approach BUT there is a third potential future to consider which I believe to be the most compelling. Let me explain.

When growth becomes exponential the likelihood is that it won’t last and that there will a substantial move in the opposite direction. This article looks at the unsustainable trends in most asset classes, population numbers, inflation and credit growth and discusses the dire consequences that are most likely to unfold in the years to come as a result.

The western world is headed to “a state of disaster” says Alan Greenspan and, “without reform of the financial system, another crisis is certain - sooner rather than later” says Mervyn King, the former head of the Bank of England. Greenspan has already suggested gold as “a good place to put money these days given the policies of governments" while King said recently that "when unexpected things happen, particularly when governments rise and fall, then gold is a means of payment that everyone is always prepared to accept."

since we have had the biggest bubble in history over the last 100 years, the end game is likely to lead to the biggest implosion in history of the world economy and financial system.

After watching some markets develop over the past week, we thought it warranted a few thoughts on a possible outlier outcome in Treasuries over the next several weeks. Since Treasuries made their respective highs in mid February, we held an intermediate-term outlook that yields could drift higher through the spring, before exogenous market pressures again arose pushing participants back into …

To most people, a depression means '30s-style conditions, and since they don't see that, they can't imagine a depression. That's because they know what the last depression was like, but they don't know what one is. It's hard to visualize something you don't understand...Nobody can predict with absolute certainty what this depression will be like...[but one] can be fairly well-assured it won't be an instant replay of the last one...To define the likely differences between this depres­sion and the last one, it's helpful to compare the situa­tion today to that in the early 1930s. The results aren't very reassuring.

It’s possible we could be on the verge of a perfect storm for gold. Supply is tight and growing tighter and, if pension funds (and other institutional investors) enter this market for any reason, demand could spike. In that scenario, Economics 101 says the price could be forced higher.

With inflation picking up but the Fed unable to hike because of the significant global volatility RBC speculates that there are now growing parallels to the 1970s when external pressures and fragile growth rates did not allow the Fed to hike. This was also notably a time of strong gold price appreciation. Could the gold price be repeating history?

The purpose of gold is to protect purchasing power and hedge against inflation but gold is not immune from speculative bubbles and overvaluation and when the price of gold is compared to the CPI index it is clearly evident that gold has become overvalued.