...Fiscal policy, both in the U.S. and in Europe, has already been a drag on economic growth, and it’s extremely likely to continue to be one as politicians begin addressing concerns about long-term debt burdens. The debate about the fiscal cliff deal might revolve around the preferred paths to reducing the nation's long-term debt, but it also will determine just how much fiscal policy will limit growth over the coming months and years. What’s really at stake, in the near term at least, is the answer to two important and interrelated questions: How dysfunctional is our political leadership and how bad is our economy going to be next year? Words: 610

NOone is expecting rampant inflation. After all, the CPI is low with nothing happening in spite of all this money printing. While there has been no fallout I think that is the critical point. You cannot do these kinds of things we are doing forever and not experience any consequences. Sooner or later there are going to be consequences to what we are doing, and my fear is that it is going to be nasty, catch a lot of people off guard, and really hurt our society. That is the bottom line and why I am buying gold and silver, still, to this day. Words: 795

The biggest danger to our society will be food prices and food costs....Productivity of grains has fallen to 1.2% per year which matches population growth exactly leaving society with no safety margin. [In addition,] there is a coming shortage of two fertilizers which occur exclusively in nature...so once the supply is gone, it’s gone forever - and this can only mean that commodity prices are going higher - much higher. Words: 585

Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry has stated, "There is no rationale for owning gold mining equities. It is as close as you get to insanity. The risk premium goes up when the gold price goes up." Indeed, the notion that adding gold and other commodities to one's portfolio produces a higher expected return with lower risk failure has failed of late and can be illustrated through the following charts. Words: 808

By smoothing out the effect of the business cycle on corporate earnings, investors get a truer picture of how expensively or cheaply stocks are priced. Yale professor Robert Shiller has popularized this concept and packaged it as the Shiller P/E ratio, alternatively known as the cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, and it has become a widely followed and efficacious stock market valuation measure. Currently the ratio is standing at a 21.4 (approximately 30% higher than its long-term average) causing many value investors to adopt a cautious stance toward US stocks. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 690

We’ve all heard countless times from mainstream economists, policymakers, and their ilk that America is somehow immune from consequences. They always pin their argument on the dollar standard. ‘Our’ central bank issues the reserve currency of the globe and that alone immunizes us from any repercussions. The 25% unemployment of Spain and Greece? The 50% unemployment among the young people in Spain? Forget about it! Never going to happen here because our paper is better than everyone else’s. Right? Sounds good, but only if you take them at their word and ignore the realities that lie just under the surface. [Let's take a closer look those realities.] Words: 2220

Financial repression occurs when governments channel funds into their own sovereign bonds in order to reduce debt levels through mechanisms such as directed lending, caps on interest rates, capital controls, debt monetization, or by other means. The promise of financial repression is that it will hold down government borrowing costs and reduce government debt levels, but critics argue that financial repression merely targets the producers of society, i.e., the middle class, and therefore harms the economy. Let's take a look at financial repression ands its supposed pros and cons. Words: 1486

With President Obama being re-elected we can expect four more years of a Washington-centric controlled economy with a rolling program of borrow, print, spend and pretend; similar to the last four years....[What affect will such fiscal irresponsibility have on the U.S. dollar, gold and silver? Read on!] Words: 717

None of the three different statistical measures of financial stress released this week suggest any conditions in the financial markets that would indicate that the U.S. economy is in a recession already, and none of them are exhibiting any upward trends that would point to a pending recession. In fact, all three stress measures have been trending downward through 2012, indicating that there is less financial stress now than at the beginning of the year. [Take a look at what each has to say and judge for yourself.] Words: 571

The election is now behind us and I pray our elected officials can come together and make quality decisions to move this country forward in a positive direction. [That being said, how the U.S. Dollar Index reacts over the short term] is going to be very important for portfolio construction in the weeks and months ahead! [Let's take a look at what the following charts say on the subject.] Words: 225