The cloud on the horizon is a flock of black swans. No one can predict when they might land. What can be said for certain is that, at some point, they most certainly will.

Every time someone tells me they are buying gold because of inflation fears, I cringe. First, I don't see a risk to higher inflation and, second, even if we have high inflation, don't count on gold as a hedge. Here's why:

Virtually everyone has become convinced that the dollar is going to 110, 120 or even 160. Folks when everyone is thinking the same thing … then no one is thinking. Here’s the thing. Almost no one is prepared for the dollar to drop. Everyone is convinced the dollar is going higher, and everyone is positioned long. Everyone is on the same side of the boat. When that happens invariably the boat tips over so here’s what I think is going to happen.

Instead of obsessing over the timing of eventual interest rate hikes to contain inflation, it may be more useful observing the slope of the yield curve to see where the economy and the stock market are headed.

Here are ten basic gold-market realities that are either unknown or ignored by many gold ‘experts’.

Gold is in a tough situation right now. It is an enigma and it is suffering from an identity crisis. It does not know whether it wants to be a commodity or a currency...sometimes its price reflects its position as a commodity and other times as a currency. These days gold is struggling with both these roles...and when it decides what it wants to be there will be a price adjustment. I believe that adjustment is coming soon and that it will take the price lower. Here's why.

Today's market and economic conditions strongly suggest that tomorrow the following events will unfold.

New changes in the Federal Reserve's discount rate will reverberate through global markets and more than likely increase the price of gold. Here's why.

This coming autumn we are likely to experience the beginning of the end to the biggest speculative bubble in world history. All bubble assets will implode and the financial system will come under massive pressure

Historically, the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 16.64, and a reversion to said mean would represent a further decline in the index of 33%.