Since the economic recovery began, many investors have looked to Asia to drive growth and stimulate global demand. China has grabbed most of the headlines, as tremendous growth in the world’s most populous nation has essentially pulled this emerging market into a tie with Japan as the world’s second-largest economy. While China’s growth has been impressive, however, recent data releases have shown that Asia isn’t a one-trick pony. Words: 781

Real yields on TIPS are very good indicators of the bond market's growth and inflation expectations. Currently they are telling us that the bond market expects sub-par growth and no significant increase in inflation. Words: 401

The crucial factor in the crash of 2008 is that it was not due to some exogenous event or extraneous shock but by the system itself. That means that the prevailing paradigm, the efficient market hypothesis basically has been proven wrong. As such, the task ahead is not to restart the economy and the financial system but to create a new system because the old system has broken down. Words: 1285

Over the next few years, a wave of commercial real estate loan failures could threaten America’s already-weakened financial system. Commercial loan losses could jeopardize the stability of many banks, particularly the nation’s 2,988 mid-sized banks that have these dangerous concentrations in commercial real estate lending and, as such, as the damage spreads beyond individual banks, contribute to prolonged weakness throughout the economy. In fact, between 2010 and 2014, about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will reach the end of their terms - and nearly half are “underwater” already. Words: 987

With all the attention being focused on whether or not there will be a sustainable recovery in 2010, the potential for a wave of sovereign-debt crises following the wake of the global recession has just recently started to appear on people's radar screens - and such a wave should not be surprising. Words: 2541

Being afflicted with an Austrian outlook can turn many a would-be investor into a permabear. Indeed, if I were truly a hardcore advocate of Austrian investing, my only assets would be a shotgun and a bag of gold because, up until now, I have never come across any writing that attempted to weld Austrian thought onto an investment framework. Words: 953

When Bernanke announced back in 2009 that he saw "green shoots" in the U.S. economy, it was a green light for global investors to start dipping their toes back in the water. Gradually investors started feeling better about the world and as they felt better, they started taking on more risk. It was a shift in focus, away from the mandate of "return OF capital" back toward one of "return ON capital." So, what's in store for 2010? Will it be risk-aversion or risk-taking? Words: 794

A survey of US hedge fund managers by London-based Moonraker Fund Management: 90 percent (20 of the 22) of the hedge fund managers surveyed admitted they had bought physical gold for personal investment. These sophisticated investors know something that the average investor doesn’t: that the global policy response to the financial crisis will not only devalue the world’s major currencies, it will decimate the US dollar. Words: 2233

Periodically in history, the expansion of credit creates the illusion of prosperity which, regretfully, ends in the inevitable bust which seems to be the case today. The sheer magnitude of credit destruction occuring right now is depressionary. The return to growth will be a long and painful process. Words: 625

There's a saying in the investment business that when the taxi driver and the delivery person are talking about a "no-lose, gotta-have" investment, it's time to run for the exits. At that point of maximum adoration and comfort, the masses have gone wild. And that's often the warning that the smart money is on its way to the exits and the novices will be trampled in the exodus. Think technology stock bubble in 2000, or house flipping three years ago. Now, think gold. Words: 471