Gold is now in the process of breaking out from a 5 year consolidation [and there] is a strong sign that the next move in gold to new highs is imminent.
The original article has been edited here for length (…) and clarity ([ ])
As the chart below shows, gold rose every year from $300 in 2002 to $1,920 in 2011. In 2013 a bigger correction started which ended in 2015. Since then gold has only moved up slowly just like it did in 1999-2001.
We need to get proper confirmation with a move to $1,400 but the rising MACD indicator is a strong sign…[and] the chart also shows that gold is in a strong uptrend and that the correction in the last 5 years is minor and finishing.
Today at $1,350, gold is as unloved and undervalued as it was…in 2002 at $300. On an real inflation adjusted basis gold at $1,350 today is at the same level as in 2002. (see chart below) and also at a 300 year low. The 1980 gold peak at $850, adjusted for inflation, would be $16,450 in today’s money – 12x higher than currently. That price is more in line with our own targets.
Silver is even more undervalued. On the same inflation adjusted basis, silver is also at a 300 year low. At $17.20 today, inflation adjusted silver is the same as in 2000 at around $4 and the 1980 silver high of $50 would today be $761 – a 44x increase from here.
Gold at $16,450 and silver at $761 makes the gold-silver ratio 22 which is in line with historical levels but, since the ratio is just below 79 today, it means that silver will move almost 4x as fast as gold.
Once the intervention in the paper market fails, which could happen at any time, the moves in gold and silver will be explosive. The time to own physical gold and silver is today and not when they move to new highs. Both metals are at inflation adjusted historical lows and the downside risk is minimal. Also, they probably are the most undervalued of all assets currently.
With geopolitical, economic and financial risks at an extreme high, please don’t ignore these risks and don’t ignore history and, with the precious metals at extreme lows, it would be very unwise not to own substantial protection in the form of physical gold and silver.
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