Sentiment in the precious metals sector is in the toilet yet the fundamentals for the sector are off the walls positive. While that is not a secret, it is what creates huge market moves in the direction of the fundamentals. In fact, market management will never move price against the underlying fundamentals for too long a period of time. This update offers more good news about the prospects for the precious metals sector. Words: 438
So says Goldrunner* (www.GoldrunnerFractalAnalysis.com) in edited excerpts from his most recent newsletter to subscribers (excluding his illustrative charts which are only available to subscribers) posted here with permission. Go here to subscribe and receive his unique analyses with one-of-a-kind charting.
Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor’s Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.
Below are snippets of what Goldrunner had to say:
More Good News
1. Mark Hulbert’s sentiment numbers for gold stock advisers has fallen into negative territory- generally a pretty reliable short-term indicator. It could get more oversold, but it is still useful in looking for a bottom.
2. There have been a multitude of news articles out about how the whole Western World is printing to debase their currencies, just another sign the global competitive currency devaluations are in full swing. This is what will jettison gold higher on a world-wide basis.
3. Management of the price of gold and silver, and ultimately the PM stocks, always comes during corrections since momentum runs cannot really be affected. Thus, we are ripe for a huge move up as soon as the final bottom is in place.
4. The Fed minutes that have gotten so many excited appear to be another funny. At the time of the Fed meeting they fully knew that the Fiscal Cliff issue comes up every year. They are also fully aware that several States have more people on welfare than are working, and they know that of those working about 40% work for the government. How can they see an improving economy with about 30% of the people supporting the other 70%? The economy is in a stagflationary depression, only supported by newly printed dollars- yet the markets react to such drivel.
5. The USD Index is still trading like a twin to the late 70’s. With global currency devaluations underway, we’d expect the USD Index to finish the current re-test of the top line, and then head lower into 2013 as gold, silver, and the PM stocks move sharply higher. A fall below recent lows should see an acceleration of the decline triggered by a new low in the RSI should trigger the move.
6. I don’t see any reason why the sentiment will not reverse off of the chart set-up to an aggressively more positive one with the PM complex moving higher in January. I like the fact that I don’t see many writers coming out with positive comments on the PM sector at this time.
Personally, I believe that a major, major bottom is in the making for Gold, for Silver, and for the PM Stocks at this time.
For the moment, GOLDRUNNER ~ Email me at [email protected] with your questions and comments.
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*Goldrunner offers a subscription service which provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and his proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Go here to subscribe.
Our subscription service provides detailed technical analysis of where the price of gold, silver and precious metal stocks are going short term (in the next week or two), intermediate term (within the next 3-6 months) and long term (the ultimate top) in each stage of their respective bull runs. This service comes with detailed charting based on conventional technical analysis and our proprietary fractal analysis based on the ’70s. Below are some of our latest comments and rationale for expected price movements in gold without illustative charts which are only available to subscribers. Words: 1000
The prospects look great for Gold and Silver to move sharply higher into 2013 to mimic the moves made in the 2005/ 2006 period and especially in 1979. In both cases back then the PM Stock Indices made big runs along with Gold and Silver. As such, the current HUI looks good for a major bottom to now be in place and to mimic the PM Stock Surrogate chart from the late 70’s. This would see the HUI go as high as the 1000 area in 2013. Let me explain further. Words: 640
Personally, based on the fundamentals at hand and the fact that Gold doubled its log channel around this point in the cycle; I expect Silver to bust up out of its log channel in 2013. Initially, I look for Silver to reach the $60 to $68 level, first and hold open the possibility for Silver to do much more on the upside as the 70’s Silver Chart reflects.
My Fractal Gold chart work is a direct comparison of Gold, today, to the late 70’s Gold Parabola. Thus, “timing” is taken directly from the late 70’s cycle, with price targets created from a combination of the late 70’s Gold price and different technical analysis techniques. We developed a price target back in 2006/ 2007 for Gold to reach the $10,000 to $12,000 range during this Gold Bull and we still stand by that forecast. Let me explain where we are at this point in time.
Jim Sinclair’s comment- “This line is no line in sand, but rather it is an event horizon that every reader should print out and paste on the wall behind their trading platform. However they will not. In the heat of emotion the gold community will be selling their children to buy gold as it over runs $4500.”
1) Yet, VALUE is different things in different parts of the long-term cycle.
2) This is because VALUE IS “SEEN” IN DIFFERENT ASSET CLASSES at different points in the cycle depending on how money printing and interest rates affect different parts of the economy.
Some person once said somemthing like, “Shoot for the Moon, and if you miss, grab a star on your way down.” One of the biggest mistakes that I think investors, technical analysists, and chartists make is getting too much tunnel vision in terms of short-term charts, short-term price, and short-term ideas. Jim Sinclair once said that, “To make big money, one must take big risk.” In doing so, he was suggesting that one should take big risk at times, but with a SMALL amount of money- NOT betting the farm. Personally, I think that today is one of those times in the Gold, Silver, and Gold/ Silver Stocks. Of course, the amount of “risk you take” is really only a function of how well you have done your homework, most of the time.
Below, is a chart of Gold with all kinds of lines rising in what appears to be an envelope with the price of Gold generally riding along the top. The lines are “moving averages” that show how the price of Gold is rising “on average” over different periods of time. Only a SuperBull Gold parabolic move in price keeps the price of Gold rising along the top of the moving average envelope like cream floating on top. The price of Gold is almost always moving higher in the SuperGold Bull so we see the moving average envelope constantly rise from the lower left of the chart, up to the upper right.
Just look at Gold’s move, already, though. So many “experts” from banks and brokerages have trotted across the stage on television telling us that “Gold is an old investment relic that pays NO DIVIDENDS!” So what? Gold has risen up over 700% for massive gains since 2001. How many of these $#$$&&^%^&^&^’s have achieved that kind of performance since 2001, besides NONE? Can you imagine the percentage gains if Gold explodes higher to double the log channel in blue from here? Quit watching TV and start thinking for yourself! And, BTW, per the 70’s Gold Bull, a huge move up from here would NOT be the final move up in this Historic Gold Bull.
The Gold Bull grows into a parabolic form on the arithmetic chart, going higher in price per time along the way. Thus each wave higher is “longer in price” while taking less time to play out. The Gold parabolic move is created by the parabolic increase in Dollars being printed.
The 73 week exponential Moving average shown on the chart in red is the kind of simple indicator that can give the long-term investor the confidence to invest/ stay invested in Gold. We can see on the chart that since the inception of the Gold Bull Market down at the “Entry for Gold Bull” label, Gold has only briefly fallen below the RED LINE 2 times.
The concept of “value” is extremely important, especially when Dollars are being printed aggressively. This is because the value of your Dollars is falling. Most people look at a Dollar and see a Dollar. They don’t understand that the worth of a Dollar can fall dramatically in times like today.
Several years, ago, the very savvy Richard Russell stated that the investment times were changing. He said that with huge debts everywhere, cash flow would be the most important issue for everybody going forward- for business, for investment, and for everyday life. He said that it was no longer a game of “Return on Capital”, but a need for “Return of Capital.” What Richard was saying was that good and consistent investment and income gains would be more difficult for a decade, or so, and that just keeping the same value of one’s savings would be an important goal.
The Fractal Gold chart work is a direct comparison of Gold, today, to the late 70’s Gold Parabola. Thus, “timing” is taken directly from the late 70’s cycle, with price targets created from a combination of the late 70’s Gold price and different technical analysis techniques. We developed a price target back in 2006/ 2007 for Gold to reach the $10,000 to $12,000 range during this Gold Bull. Anything above that range would mean that the “Stagflation” comparison to the late 70’s was exceeded and “Hyper-inflation” would become a real possibility. Let me explain where we are at this point in time
The “Deflationary” portion of the long-term economic cycle is called Kondratieff Winter. It is characterized by huge debts with a topping economy and stock market. We hit the K-Wave Winter in 1929, and again in the year 2000. The most important factor in how things play out in a K-Winter is the “state of the Dollar.”
Greenspan orchestrated massive asset price inflation in the face of K-Winter Deflation by aggressively printing and devaluing the US Dollar. Many look to see “where the Dollars are going”, but it is the effect of Dollar Devaluation on Price Inflation that is most important. The Dollar Devaluation will grossly devalue the debts while driving key asset prices like Gold sharply, higher.
This period of the long-term investing cycle is all about reality versus fantasy, but on several different levels. The system has been turned upside down by using “paper derivatives” that can be expanded to infinity for “price discovery.” Even paper money is a “derivative” since periodically in the long-term cycle, like today, the world must turn to REAL MONEY GOLD to bail out the paper currency system.
Since the Fed has the control of the money, it knows in advance what it will do. Thus, the Fed Banks have very powerful legal inside information and can front-run everything that they do while taking no risk, whatsoever!